Money Matters update July 20, 2016 Please read!

Money Matters airs tomorrow Thursday at noon, PACIFIC STANDARD TIME on KVMR FM 

 

 

 

Marc's Notes:

THE BREXIT

 

Wikipedia defines the Euro currency as the official currency of the Eurozone, of which 19 of the 28 member states of the European Union (EU). Recent news has covered the so called “Brexit” where the British people voted 52% to 48 % to leave the common currency agreement.

 

Global stock markets immediately illustrated the surprising move by Britain by falling in concert in the days following the announcement. The vote is not actually binding and Parliament could elect to ignore the will of the people and stay in the Euro. A renegotiation between Britain and Euro authorities might take place to try and reach a more palatable outcome then an outright exit or even another vote may be in the cards given the gravity of the situation.  An actual Brexit will take about 2 years to implement.

 

Only time will tell if Britain actually becomes the first nation to leave the EU but if it does, it may signal the beginning of some serious problems for the Euro. The more likely outcome however would be a shuffling of the existing members and a rework of the rules to better address the issues that may have led to Brexit in the first place and to prevent other nations from following suit.

 

At issue is the inherent problem of a common currency being used for differing economies. One could argue the only example of a common monetary representation in history is the use and acknowledgment of gold as a common unit of measure but the Euro is the first example in modern history of this type of concept being implemented.

 

The problem with a common currency is that each participating nation is inherently different then the next. Each nation has its unique levels of debt, trade levels, deficiencies, advantages and subsequent fiscal policies to handle such uniqueness.

 

Even the authorities that handle such policies and the people that make those decisions differ from country to country and therein lies the problem. One nation may have a strong balance sheet and a responsible fiscal administration while the next may border on fiscal irresponsibility. One nation might overspend while the next runs a balanced budget. In a world where each nation has its own currency, such differences in economies are addressed by each nations ability to borrow money in the public markets and how readily lenders are to pony up their money for government IOU’s. Simply put, the more irresponsible the country, the harder it is for them to borrow and the more they have to pay in interest to do so.

 

In a common currency situation however, such as the one we have with the Euro, the ability to borrow is centralized and equal. Being a common currency, the rules are the same for everyone. To grasp the concept of problem, imagine a group of people with differing credit scores all being allowed to borrow on the same terms and at the same rates.

 

Some would cry foul while others would reap the benefits. Such is the issue with the Euro. Responsible nations are crying foul for having to pick up the tab for others. Overspending nations want to renege or renegotiate on their debts by pulling out of the Euro and pay what they owe using their own currency obviously made easier made by using their own printing presses. Something which is far easier to do then pay back what they currently owe in Euros. 

 

Britain joined the European Economic Community in 1973 and hence the European Union in the 1990s. But Britain never fully accepted the legitimacy of European control over British institutions in a way that other EU members did. It refused, for example, to eliminate its internal border controls or the use of the common currency in question, the Euro dollar.

 

Even without direct involvement with the Euro currency, the ramifications of the Brexit are unknown but no doubt still serious. Should Britain set the example of how a nation could possible take an easier route by simply leaving the EU, other nations could eventually do the same. If enough nations leave, this could shake the whole concept of the Euro to its core.

 

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We have been talking about my recent trip to Japan and how amazing their systems are.

 

So here is a batting cage near Tokyo where my son is batting. Look carefully and you will see on the far wall a TV monitor the size of a man. The movie shown is the pitcher winding up and delivering the pitch. The timing is perfect which means the professional pitcher winds up and as he delivers the ball on the screen, the ball comes screaming out a hole next to the screen. Amazing!

 

 

They love their rock groups over there. Here is a photo booth that has lights that make you look like you are in a rock promo photo. No makeup was worn. It’s the lighting and the booth processing. Yours truly looks ridiculous I know!
 

 

Here is a cool museum with all sorts of visual gadgets that blow your mind. Here is my daughter Sadie standing on her finger! Is she really doing that?

 

 

 

Many of the Japanese are Buddhist or Shinto or both. They throw coins in these shrine bins and make a wish. Before anyone showed up, I, being an ignorant idiot, thought it was a recycle bin and tossed in a beer can. I was immediately arrested and flogged. These below are doing it the correct way. (It DID look like a recycle bin. Trust me)

 

 

 

This is Tokyo Tower. It was destroyed and rebuilt three times, twice by Godzilla and once by Mothra. I, being afraid of heights, forced myself to jump onto this glass panel.

Although many stood on it, I was the only one brave enough to jump on it. The thought of it breaking by the jumping impact was with me the whole way thru the act and that fear is also what kept anyone else from doing it. The view from the Tower is also below.

 

 

The Japanese subways are jammed full during rush hour. Note my wife and daughter totally crushed. The picture doesn’t do full justice. I could not even reach in my pocket and they cram in until sometimes it’s literally hard to breath. Note my sister in law who lives there not even phased and on her I phone. The second photo is people crammed against the door as the train pulls away. I hope they have good locks on those doors.

 

 

That does it for now but I encourage anyone who has the means to definitely make Japan an item on your bucket list!

 

All the best,

Marc

 

PS: Japan has negative interest rates on many of their bonds.

 

What does this mean? Keep reading ….

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Negative Interest Rates

Negative yield, also known as negative interest rates, have been all the rage recently with over 10 trillion worth of sovereign bonds yielding less than zero. (Bloomberg news).

A difficult concept to grasp by the average investor, negative yields mean that lenders buying up government IOU’s with negative yield will get back less than they loaned out when the IOU’s become due.

Japan and France are leading the way in issuing negative yield bonds with Japan offering 20 year bonds and France with 9 year maturities.

Although currently the U.S. has not offered negative yield bonds, many countries in Europe and surrounding areas have successfully done so, evident by the massive successful issuance.

One might ask why investors would buy a bond that pays back less than what was loaned.

 

The key to understanding this is knowing how large money holders do business. Unable to put their money in an insured savings accounts like you and I can due to the large amounts of cash that need to be placed, government bonds are the common hiding place for huge money depositors.

Government bonds are considered one of the safest investments due to the fact that governments for the most part can’t go broke and therefore default on their debts.

Not that it hasn’t happened but it is a rare occurrence in the world of central bankers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who can and have backstopped any nation that needed additional funding to enable them to pay their debts.

One just has to look at the many bailouts provided to Greece and Puerto Rico, to name a few, who have found themselves in a monetary bind needing funds to pay their bills and almost without exception central bankers have provided such funding.

 

As interest rates remain at historic lows in many parts of the world and the demand for safe havens like sovereign debt skyrockets, many governments have found themselves able to borrow money at the favorable rates that negative yields offer. After all, what better way to borrow money than to pay back less than what you borrowed in essence making money on deal. Theoretically, the more they borrow, the more money they make!

What a crazy world we live in, and all because all that money that central bankers have printed up to try and save the economies and governments of the world is sloshing around the globe looking for a home.