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Markets Treading Water- Watch for Inflation. June 17th, 2009 Update
Marc's Notes:
The markets continue their sideways motion despite a host of market moving news items emerging on the media.
Fed Express reported terrible sales. If FEX ain't shipping, boxes aren’t moving, therefore the "recovery" ain't happening.
Negative figures coming out of Washington contradict "spin" coming from Manhattan.
Are we or are we not in a recovery.
"We are not" says Money Matters Host Marc Cuniberti.
The consolidation of the stock market and failure to continue any significant rally reflects anemic economic figures. Mortgage rates are spiking as the FEDS cannot control the bond traders or world interest rates. The FEDS are trying to get rates to drop, yet they are rising. Humm.. What's going on here?
As the FEDS print more money to pay for the 13 trillion they have promised, the world is becoming more suspicious that the US can actually make good on all its debts. ( It cannot possibly of course, the figures are just TOO large).
Therefore US debt is getting more expensive to finance. The risk here as I continue to warn is a US dollar crash or devaluation. Look, it may or may not happen, but the risk is so great if it does, you MUST at least prepare some of your finances to weather it if it happens. Remember, I warned you about the bank crisis and housing crisis at least 2 years in advance. (order shows 1 thru 10 and LISTEN).
Now I (and US COMPTROLLER David Walker- Show # 65) am warning you: If you think the last go around was something, you just wait. IF the US dollar does start to crash, you wont only lose money in your stock accounts, you will lose money across the board.
I know, I know. You think the FEDS will never let it happen. That they have everything under control.
Isn't that what they said before Citibank, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and a host of others almost collapsed the US economy? If they know what they are doing, how come we almost crashed into the side of the mountain?
Don't be fooled again. They DO NOT know what they are doing and from an economic standpoint, it is easy and obvious to see. From my vantage point, looking at figures I understand and analyze, they are fooling with fire here and the risk of unintended consequences is dire.
For now, all is relatively quiet, but take this opportunity to prepare this time around so you don't get caught like you did last time, sweating bullets and standing in the crowd, wondering who is going to "just fix it!".
Remember the Boy Scouts Motto- Be Prepared!
I will cover this and more in this Thursday's show, June 18th, noon- PST. 89.5 105.1 95.1 FM and worldwide on the web at www.kvmr.org.
Credit card bailouts, municipality bailouts, state bailouts, insurer bailouts, pension bailouts, car bailouts, company bailouts. Did you know the RV manufacturers, boat manufacturers, snowmobile manufacturers, motorcycle manufacturers and other "recreational" type companies are getting Federal (your tax dollars) funds?
In more economic news, Obama calls for more regulation of Wall Street. Truth is they had the regulation but just didn’t use it. After all, they ARE the FEDS and can do anything they want.
Like alter contracts, alter bondholder rights, alter mortgage terms, alter Federal law, alter the US Constitution, and alter whatever the hell they feel like doing under "for the good of the system" lie.
What we need is more regulation OVER THEM, to be sure they do their damn jobs and stay the hell out of our lives while they are at it.
Another housing bailout or at least a modification or two is headed our way again. Just you wait. More taxpayer money to pay for your neighbors house while he refinanced and bought new furniture and a new car. You were prudent and paid your bills on time. So now you pay for him, who didn’t. For the good of the system.
Like I said, once they got you to accept the first bailout, it was just the admission price, now KATY BAR THE DOOR, the money hungry "Zombies" just keep on coming!
What to look for in the next few days:
Inflation! (Subject of this Thursdays show). More and higher unemployment. We warned you in our 2008 fall Money Matters Updates throughout the fall and winter that unemployment would be the trumping news headlines in the 2009 spring, and you can expect that to continue.
Retail sales will continue to plummet- It may be time to look at shorting some select retailers and summer market weakness may mean profits. We will watch this opportunity closely and advise.
Oil and commodities are showing the effects of massive money creation by rising dramatically in price.
Despite the news media claiming inflation is tame, don't you believe them. I am seeing it everywhere. Gosh, SUBWAY sandwiches just raised their prices this week! You know as well as I do, prices are rising.
You had better own commodities and stocks of companies that own them or lose money to an eroding dollar.
More bailouts and a housing bailout enlargement will trump the headlines. Watch as your government destroys your US dollar and gives away your tax money to try and "reinflate" the Goldilocks economy. They didn’t bother to notice she was eaten by the BEAR long ago and is rotting beneath the floorboards. What is that smell anyway?
Real Estate- NO. We are NOT at a bottom and run from anyone who tells you this. They are not looking at the facts and are not looking at history. Temporary spikes in fudged figures mean nothing. Thats market "noise".
Real Estate has another 10 to 25 % downside to fall, and will take years to bottom. A slow miserable grind.
If you want lower prices, WAIT until you buy. If you are looking for a home to live in and don't care if the price drops after you buy it, then ok.
Holdings:
Our Obama plays are SO CLOSE! Hold- we may never get there at this rate. I am watching carefully.
Oil- Doubled in a few short months. I mentioned in the last few updates that I was selling a portion of my profits in DXO which we bought for around 2 bucks. Sold a little less then half at 4.50 or so on a stop and bought Natural Gas thru the fund UNG. Natural Gas was like SLV and Oil were a few months back. Minimum downside in relation to its upside. Now that Oil and SLV moved nicely, we hopscotched over to UNG and are up about 10 % in a week. I am adding more today. A once wise investor said: "When there is money in the corner, go over and pick it up!".
We are doing this with UNG. You have about a 50 % downside risk to a 1000% upside potential. Just like Oil and SLV were. I love those odds.
Dividend Payers- Rising and paying. HOLD or ADD
Swiss Annuities- The Swiss Franc has been on a tear so those holding these annuities are making money PLUS dividends PLUS interest. HOLD or ADD
Shorts- Humm.... looking.. looking.... will advise. I picked up some market hedges about a month ago and they haven't moved, but I am smelling a tired market. Careful here. Summer is coming and that is a slow time. Fall is the time for FALLS so we will be REAL CAREFUL come July and August going into late summer.
Gold and Silver- Add physical anytime. I mentioned to "STOP" out SLV at 14.80 and you should have been OUT at 14.80 for a portion of your holdings. You may get back in around 12.00 or 12.50 if it goes there, otherwise hold your remaining SLV for the 20 that is coming.
Interest Rate Funds- Tore up the markets last few weeks but are consolidating and back filling. OK to ADD and HOLD here. Look into TBT or RRPIX. There are others.
Foreign Currency Funds- ADD. Rising nicely again.
Upcoming Shows:
If you have not heard #65, this is a "MUST" listen where I interview (Ret.) US COMPTROLLER GENERAL Mr. David Walker. If you don’t believe me what is possibly coming, listen to HIM. If after listening to him you fail to prepare to protect your money? You will have no one to blame but yourself. So PLEASE LISTEN to at least ONE OF US and protect yourself.
This weeks show: "Inflation- What it is and how to avoid it". Noon, Thursday June 18th Pacific Standard Time.
Consults: Yes they cost, but protection is worth the minimal fee in my opinion. Email us to schedule and for rates. Its pretty cheap considering, and I buy the lunch! How can you lose!
That’s all for now. My shoulder is almost fully healed and thanks one more time for all the well wishes and help all of you provided. The pledge drive raised over 10,000 during Money Matters and 90,000 for the week. Thank you for your support.
All the best,
Marc
The markets continue their sideways motion despite a host of market moving news items emerging on the media.
Fed Express reported terrible sales. If FEX ain't shipping, boxes aren’t moving, therefore the "recovery" ain't happening.
Negative figures coming out of Washington contradict "spin" coming from Manhattan.
Are we or are we not in a recovery.
"We are not" says Money Matters Host Marc Cuniberti.
The consolidation of the stock market and failure to continue any significant rally reflects anemic economic figures. Mortgage rates are spiking as the FEDS cannot control the bond traders or world interest rates. The FEDS are trying to get rates to drop, yet they are rising. Humm.. What's going on here?
As the FEDS print more money to pay for the 13 trillion they have promised, the world is becoming more suspicious that the US can actually make good on all its debts. ( It cannot possibly of course, the figures are just TOO large).
Therefore US debt is getting more expensive to finance. The risk here as I continue to warn is a US dollar crash or devaluation. Look, it may or may not happen, but the risk is so great if it does, you MUST at least prepare some of your finances to weather it if it happens. Remember, I warned you about the bank crisis and housing crisis at least 2 years in advance. (order shows 1 thru 10 and LISTEN).
Now I (and US COMPTROLLER David Walker- Show # 65) am warning you: If you think the last go around was something, you just wait. IF the US dollar does start to crash, you wont only lose money in your stock accounts, you will lose money across the board.
I know, I know. You think the FEDS will never let it happen. That they have everything under control.
Isn't that what they said before Citibank, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and a host of others almost collapsed the US economy? If they know what they are doing, how come we almost crashed into the side of the mountain?
Don't be fooled again. They DO NOT know what they are doing and from an economic standpoint, it is easy and obvious to see. From my vantage point, looking at figures I understand and analyze, they are fooling with fire here and the risk of unintended consequences is dire.
For now, all is relatively quiet, but take this opportunity to prepare this time around so you don't get caught like you did last time, sweating bullets and standing in the crowd, wondering who is going to "just fix it!".
Remember the Boy Scouts Motto- Be Prepared!
I will cover this and more in this Thursday's show, June 18th, noon- PST. 89.5 105.1 95.1 FM and worldwide on the web at www.kvmr.org.
Credit card bailouts, municipality bailouts, state bailouts, insurer bailouts, pension bailouts, car bailouts, company bailouts. Did you know the RV manufacturers, boat manufacturers, snowmobile manufacturers, motorcycle manufacturers and other "recreational" type companies are getting Federal (your tax dollars) funds?
In more economic news, Obama calls for more regulation of Wall Street. Truth is they had the regulation but just didn’t use it. After all, they ARE the FEDS and can do anything they want.
Like alter contracts, alter bondholder rights, alter mortgage terms, alter Federal law, alter the US Constitution, and alter whatever the hell they feel like doing under "for the good of the system" lie.
What we need is more regulation OVER THEM, to be sure they do their damn jobs and stay the hell out of our lives while they are at it.
Another housing bailout or at least a modification or two is headed our way again. Just you wait. More taxpayer money to pay for your neighbors house while he refinanced and bought new furniture and a new car. You were prudent and paid your bills on time. So now you pay for him, who didn’t. For the good of the system.
Like I said, once they got you to accept the first bailout, it was just the admission price, now KATY BAR THE DOOR, the money hungry "Zombies" just keep on coming!
What to look for in the next few days:
Inflation! (Subject of this Thursdays show). More and higher unemployment. We warned you in our 2008 fall Money Matters Updates throughout the fall and winter that unemployment would be the trumping news headlines in the 2009 spring, and you can expect that to continue.
Retail sales will continue to plummet- It may be time to look at shorting some select retailers and summer market weakness may mean profits. We will watch this opportunity closely and advise.
Oil and commodities are showing the effects of massive money creation by rising dramatically in price.
Despite the news media claiming inflation is tame, don't you believe them. I am seeing it everywhere. Gosh, SUBWAY sandwiches just raised their prices this week! You know as well as I do, prices are rising.
You had better own commodities and stocks of companies that own them or lose money to an eroding dollar.
More bailouts and a housing bailout enlargement will trump the headlines. Watch as your government destroys your US dollar and gives away your tax money to try and "reinflate" the Goldilocks economy. They didn’t bother to notice she was eaten by the BEAR long ago and is rotting beneath the floorboards. What is that smell anyway?
Real Estate- NO. We are NOT at a bottom and run from anyone who tells you this. They are not looking at the facts and are not looking at history. Temporary spikes in fudged figures mean nothing. Thats market "noise".
Real Estate has another 10 to 25 % downside to fall, and will take years to bottom. A slow miserable grind.
If you want lower prices, WAIT until you buy. If you are looking for a home to live in and don't care if the price drops after you buy it, then ok.
Holdings:
Our Obama plays are SO CLOSE! Hold- we may never get there at this rate. I am watching carefully.
Oil- Doubled in a few short months. I mentioned in the last few updates that I was selling a portion of my profits in DXO which we bought for around 2 bucks. Sold a little less then half at 4.50 or so on a stop and bought Natural Gas thru the fund UNG. Natural Gas was like SLV and Oil were a few months back. Minimum downside in relation to its upside. Now that Oil and SLV moved nicely, we hopscotched over to UNG and are up about 10 % in a week. I am adding more today. A once wise investor said: "When there is money in the corner, go over and pick it up!".
We are doing this with UNG. You have about a 50 % downside risk to a 1000% upside potential. Just like Oil and SLV were. I love those odds.
Dividend Payers- Rising and paying. HOLD or ADD
Swiss Annuities- The Swiss Franc has been on a tear so those holding these annuities are making money PLUS dividends PLUS interest. HOLD or ADD
Shorts- Humm.... looking.. looking.... will advise. I picked up some market hedges about a month ago and they haven't moved, but I am smelling a tired market. Careful here. Summer is coming and that is a slow time. Fall is the time for FALLS so we will be REAL CAREFUL come July and August going into late summer.
Gold and Silver- Add physical anytime. I mentioned to "STOP" out SLV at 14.80 and you should have been OUT at 14.80 for a portion of your holdings. You may get back in around 12.00 or 12.50 if it goes there, otherwise hold your remaining SLV for the 20 that is coming.
Interest Rate Funds- Tore up the markets last few weeks but are consolidating and back filling. OK to ADD and HOLD here. Look into TBT or RRPIX. There are others.
Foreign Currency Funds- ADD. Rising nicely again.
Upcoming Shows:
If you have not heard #65, this is a "MUST" listen where I interview (Ret.) US COMPTROLLER GENERAL Mr. David Walker. If you don’t believe me what is possibly coming, listen to HIM. If after listening to him you fail to prepare to protect your money? You will have no one to blame but yourself. So PLEASE LISTEN to at least ONE OF US and protect yourself.
This weeks show: "Inflation- What it is and how to avoid it". Noon, Thursday June 18th Pacific Standard Time.
Consults: Yes they cost, but protection is worth the minimal fee in my opinion. Email us to schedule and for rates. Its pretty cheap considering, and I buy the lunch! How can you lose!
That’s all for now. My shoulder is almost fully healed and thanks one more time for all the well wishes and help all of you provided. The pledge drive raised over 10,000 during Money Matters and 90,000 for the week. Thank you for your support.
All the best,
Marc
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