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Markets Reeling! Rally Fading? Turkeys Matter! Update November 1, 2009
The markets look sick. Don’t be fooled by hype or spin. As previously indicated in this news letter, we are at technically a critical point in the markets. If they keep falling, then the bottom could be falling out of the market again and look out below. The 10,500 level turn point we indicated and mentioned would either be 10,300 or 10,800 before it reversed was accurate and I hit that one right on the mark with a 10,400 turn point. Investors are seeing the deficits, the unemployment, the earnings, the spending, the consumer confidence levels and beginning to say “Is this recovery for real?.
No, it is not.
I warned you to lighten up on your profitable positions and hedge with contrary funds starting in August or so. That was a good call and I hope you did just that. It is still not too late to do so if you did not. Please email me if you need to know how to hedge (protect) yourself. Remember, buy and hold never worked, and most certainly is DEAD now. I keep hearing Bob Brinker, Suzie Ortman, the “real estate guys” on our local station, Clark Howard and the other shills who call themselves advisors and experts tell listeners markets always come back, to buy stocks, corporate bonds, and other “dead” assets.
These guys have been wrong all along. If you don’t believe me, listen to their past shows. Then listen to mine. They WERE WRONG, ARE WRONG, and WILL CONTINUE to be wrong as most of these clowns have always been. I am not any smarter, or have a crystal ball, I just remember my economics classes, that vertical lines are bad things, that history DOES repeat, and that we must learn from it. That these bozos forgot what a bubble was, got caught up in the noise, believed markets and housing always goes up, is a testament to just how and why most investors got slaughtered, and will continue to get slaughtered in the next turndown. These guys are getting taken to the cleaners on their forecasts and should be taken off the air as well. To recommend stocks in this environment, and indeed in the last 10 years borders on criminal.
Meanwhile, Real Estate is toast and will continue to be so. I walked thru the exclusive housing development “The Cedars” with my kids yesterday. I spoke to several real estate agents who gave me their “opinions” on the real estate market. One of these guys was an agent who I spoke to last year. (He didn’t remember me and I didn’t have the heart to tell him).
He had his client turn down a 850,000 offer on the same property he now has listed at 775,000.00. He HAD 850,000 and refused it. At that time, I told him he should have listed it for the low 600,000 and JUST GET RID OF IT, but he insisted the house was “worth much more”. Now he cant get 775,000.!
Another agent was showing another house for 750,000. and said it would go fast. I told her the Cedar Houses will eventually be back to where I saw them in 1999, at about 500,000 for an average house. She scoffed and said no way. HA ! The same idiotic laugh I saw on the other guy last year. Just you wait. These houses will be back at 500,000 before this is over and probably lower. I will say it again.
Remember all those foreclosures people were buying on those TV auction shows and seminars sales? I told you they would be VERY SORRY they bought at those so called “Rock Bottom Prices”.
I will say it for the umpteenth time. From a market analyst (I am NOT a real estate agent!), but I KNOW markets and that includes real estate.
REAL ESTATE WILL FALL ANOTHER 15 % MINIMUM in the next 3 years and probably ANOTHER 25 % or 35 % from where it is now. We are NOWHERE near the bottom and won’t be for another 3 to 5 years MINIMUM?
Is that laughing I hear?
PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS AND MAKE ME A BET! I will bet anyone that what I say will come to pass. COUNT ON IT.
Back on the farm, gold is holding and rising nicely this morning, along with Silver, Oil is holding nicely, Natural Gas is correcting and the stock markets are feeling queasy.
Alert level remains at ORANGE with a redder shade to it. CAREFUL Here. Take profits when you can. Fall is the time for market FALLS.
Expect more housing bailouts and credits and company “help” programs to come out of Washington. (It wont be enough!).
CIT, the big insurer filed bankruptcy this weekend so the taxpayer bailout of 2.2 billion is up in smoke. No surprise there. Did the government willing give them 2.2 billion knowing they would fail, or just not know how to read a financial statement? Either excuse in inexcusable.
Expect more of the same, and listen up. GM, FORD and CHRYSLER will need MORE bailouts. Expect another auto company to teeter. Car sales are dismal. Expect their “Hybrids” to be plagued with problems (my opinion only) while foreign Hybrids continue to run like clocks and dominate the markets. Quality is job one? HAHAHAHA.
Holdings:
I am waiting now on Natural Gas to add more. If deflation is setting in, then I will keep funds aside for GAZ to hit 11 or so and UNG to hit 9 or so. I had sold a portion a month back per this update advised, and now have been adding again on the way down, but will NOT ADD anymore until this recent market downturn stabilizes. As I say, if the markets fall, EVERYTHING will fall with it except US dollars; hence the US DOLLAR rally I said was coming is now probably here. The US dollar rally is because investors are becoming scared again and when they become scared the sell stocks and start buying US dollars and that is apparently what is now happening again. Fall is the time for market FALLS so beware.
Same with Gold and silver STOCKS.
Physical gold and silver should be added anytime and always.
Dividend Payers- lightly if at all. HOLD what you have but consider taking profits on some if you have any.
Contrary Funds- ADD as has been suggested over the last 3 months. I have.
Foreign Currency Funds- Add, hold. You have nice gains here, but a dollar rally will take some back now. Hold for the eventual dollar death dance.
Swiss Annuities: Add, the window is probably closing.
US Dollar holdings: HOLD but HEDGE with the foreign currency CD I mentioned on this Mondays show. I also read my Dream Portfolio and my personal holdings on the air on Mondays show. Transcripts are not available but because we got so many requests for my personal holdings and the Dream Portfolio and the Foreign Currency CD I mentioned and bought myself, we are making it available on 2 cd’s for you to review. You must request by EMAIL and there is a fee for this show only due to its content.
Turkey Matters:
Every year my wife and I buy a truckload of turkeys for the food banks. We have since the late 1980’s, wherever we live. We did so again this year but now they need even more due to the economy. So I want to beef up their turkey count even more and will match all monies sent to me for our “TURKEY MATTERS”. Send a check made out to either the NEVADA FOOD BANK or INTERFAITH MINISTRIES FOOD BANK and I will MATCH your funds! Each turkey costs only about 7 bucks each, so send in at least one turkey check and help feed those less fortunate.
Mail to:
MONEY MATTERS PMB 101 578 SUTTON WAY GRASS VALLEY, CA 95945.
Remember, don’t make the check to us, make it directly to the food banks. I will pass your check to them and match it. Let’s all buy ONE turkey for 7 bucks, and they will get 2!
Double your turkeys! Turkey DOES MATTER and the Matters of Turkeys affect us all in some way or another! (Show intro line if you haven’t guessed!)
Upcoming Show:
This Thursday at noon PST “Foreign Currencies”. Why we should hold them and how.
All for now!
Marc
No, it is not.
I warned you to lighten up on your profitable positions and hedge with contrary funds starting in August or so. That was a good call and I hope you did just that. It is still not too late to do so if you did not. Please email me if you need to know how to hedge (protect) yourself. Remember, buy and hold never worked, and most certainly is DEAD now. I keep hearing Bob Brinker, Suzie Ortman, the “real estate guys” on our local station, Clark Howard and the other shills who call themselves advisors and experts tell listeners markets always come back, to buy stocks, corporate bonds, and other “dead” assets.
These guys have been wrong all along. If you don’t believe me, listen to their past shows. Then listen to mine. They WERE WRONG, ARE WRONG, and WILL CONTINUE to be wrong as most of these clowns have always been. I am not any smarter, or have a crystal ball, I just remember my economics classes, that vertical lines are bad things, that history DOES repeat, and that we must learn from it. That these bozos forgot what a bubble was, got caught up in the noise, believed markets and housing always goes up, is a testament to just how and why most investors got slaughtered, and will continue to get slaughtered in the next turndown. These guys are getting taken to the cleaners on their forecasts and should be taken off the air as well. To recommend stocks in this environment, and indeed in the last 10 years borders on criminal.
Meanwhile, Real Estate is toast and will continue to be so. I walked thru the exclusive housing development “The Cedars” with my kids yesterday. I spoke to several real estate agents who gave me their “opinions” on the real estate market. One of these guys was an agent who I spoke to last year. (He didn’t remember me and I didn’t have the heart to tell him).
He had his client turn down a 850,000 offer on the same property he now has listed at 775,000.00. He HAD 850,000 and refused it. At that time, I told him he should have listed it for the low 600,000 and JUST GET RID OF IT, but he insisted the house was “worth much more”. Now he cant get 775,000.!
Another agent was showing another house for 750,000. and said it would go fast. I told her the Cedar Houses will eventually be back to where I saw them in 1999, at about 500,000 for an average house. She scoffed and said no way. HA ! The same idiotic laugh I saw on the other guy last year. Just you wait. These houses will be back at 500,000 before this is over and probably lower. I will say it again.
Remember all those foreclosures people were buying on those TV auction shows and seminars sales? I told you they would be VERY SORRY they bought at those so called “Rock Bottom Prices”.
I will say it for the umpteenth time. From a market analyst (I am NOT a real estate agent!), but I KNOW markets and that includes real estate.
REAL ESTATE WILL FALL ANOTHER 15 % MINIMUM in the next 3 years and probably ANOTHER 25 % or 35 % from where it is now. We are NOWHERE near the bottom and won’t be for another 3 to 5 years MINIMUM?
Is that laughing I hear?
PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS AND MAKE ME A BET! I will bet anyone that what I say will come to pass. COUNT ON IT.
Back on the farm, gold is holding and rising nicely this morning, along with Silver, Oil is holding nicely, Natural Gas is correcting and the stock markets are feeling queasy.
Alert level remains at ORANGE with a redder shade to it. CAREFUL Here. Take profits when you can. Fall is the time for market FALLS.
Expect more housing bailouts and credits and company “help” programs to come out of Washington. (It wont be enough!).
CIT, the big insurer filed bankruptcy this weekend so the taxpayer bailout of 2.2 billion is up in smoke. No surprise there. Did the government willing give them 2.2 billion knowing they would fail, or just not know how to read a financial statement? Either excuse in inexcusable.
Expect more of the same, and listen up. GM, FORD and CHRYSLER will need MORE bailouts. Expect another auto company to teeter. Car sales are dismal. Expect their “Hybrids” to be plagued with problems (my opinion only) while foreign Hybrids continue to run like clocks and dominate the markets. Quality is job one? HAHAHAHA.
Holdings:
I am waiting now on Natural Gas to add more. If deflation is setting in, then I will keep funds aside for GAZ to hit 11 or so and UNG to hit 9 or so. I had sold a portion a month back per this update advised, and now have been adding again on the way down, but will NOT ADD anymore until this recent market downturn stabilizes. As I say, if the markets fall, EVERYTHING will fall with it except US dollars; hence the US DOLLAR rally I said was coming is now probably here. The US dollar rally is because investors are becoming scared again and when they become scared the sell stocks and start buying US dollars and that is apparently what is now happening again. Fall is the time for market FALLS so beware.
Same with Gold and silver STOCKS.
Physical gold and silver should be added anytime and always.
Dividend Payers- lightly if at all. HOLD what you have but consider taking profits on some if you have any.
Contrary Funds- ADD as has been suggested over the last 3 months. I have.
Foreign Currency Funds- Add, hold. You have nice gains here, but a dollar rally will take some back now. Hold for the eventual dollar death dance.
Swiss Annuities: Add, the window is probably closing.
US Dollar holdings: HOLD but HEDGE with the foreign currency CD I mentioned on this Mondays show. I also read my Dream Portfolio and my personal holdings on the air on Mondays show. Transcripts are not available but because we got so many requests for my personal holdings and the Dream Portfolio and the Foreign Currency CD I mentioned and bought myself, we are making it available on 2 cd’s for you to review. You must request by EMAIL and there is a fee for this show only due to its content.
Turkey Matters:
Every year my wife and I buy a truckload of turkeys for the food banks. We have since the late 1980’s, wherever we live. We did so again this year but now they need even more due to the economy. So I want to beef up their turkey count even more and will match all monies sent to me for our “TURKEY MATTERS”. Send a check made out to either the NEVADA FOOD BANK or INTERFAITH MINISTRIES FOOD BANK and I will MATCH your funds! Each turkey costs only about 7 bucks each, so send in at least one turkey check and help feed those less fortunate.
Mail to:
MONEY MATTERS PMB 101 578 SUTTON WAY GRASS VALLEY, CA 95945.
Remember, don’t make the check to us, make it directly to the food banks. I will pass your check to them and match it. Let’s all buy ONE turkey for 7 bucks, and they will get 2!
Double your turkeys! Turkey DOES MATTER and the Matters of Turkeys affect us all in some way or another! (Show intro line if you haven’t guessed!)
Upcoming Show:
This Thursday at noon PST “Foreign Currencies”. Why we should hold them and how.
All for now!
Marc
My Cart
