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Dividend Payers News. Markets Flat. Recovery? Update Dec 30, 2009
Marc's Notes:
I hope everyone had a great Christmas remembering the reason for the season. Markets were boring as we indicated they would be and gold did hop around a bit as expected. This time of year is usually slow with a new optimism into January. The “January” effect is a phenomenon where by some think we can tell what the rest of the market year will be by January’s action. Last year if you recall, the markets welcomed Obama to the party by beginning a stomach churning drop on inauguration day of all times. In the words of the movie “Die Hard”
“Welcome to the party pal!”
How will this January play out? No one knows. Half the articles say up and away into 2010, the other half say the market is overbought and a new leg down will begin. My guess is early on the markets will continue to hop around until a bias is established a few weeks into January. The market is way overbought but that don’t mean it can’t stay overbought as markets stay illogical much longer then you might think. I talked to someone this week that got clobbered by trying to guess the market turn in early summer, and bet heavily on a fall, only to lose a pot load as the market continued to rally. Never bet heavy one way or another. Hedge, get income, protect and stay safe. Gamble on high gain- low risk plays like oil was last year and natural gas is now. Limited downside, high potential upside, with at least a 3 to 1 ratio. Can you say Natural Gas?
Interest rates are slowly climbing but that doesn’t mean a US dollar crash is imminent. It will probably play out like this. Once the stimulus money wears thin, and unemployment continues to takes its toll on spending, the spinsters will lose their spell casting ability and Joe Sixpack will begin to realize the recovery isn’t all its chalked up to be. After all, if Government borrowing and spending could solve a bad economy, there would be no bad economies, right? Well, just look around. They are everywhere, despite the biggest spending free for all in history. Even with all this money being spent, literally OFF THE CHARTS stimulus, the indicators are barely budging. And those indicators are massaged like a KOBE COW before slaughtering. Tracking the statistics they way they should be. (See shadowstats.com among others), the real tale is of an economy barely standing.
Production is said to be up as well as spending according to Washington. But just out today, tax receipts are continuing down on every level of government. Tax receipts reflect what is REALLY happening in corporate profits and sales. How can tax receipts be down if profits are up?
Illogical? Yup. It reflects the massaging of statistics.
And can you count borrowing in your house as income? Hardly, but Washington spends more borrowed money then puts out figures that show production is up and the economy is getting better. What a joke.
Inflation is said to be tame, but rice is up 63 %, and soybeans, coffee, just about everything is rising again by leaps and bounds. How can they say inflation is nil when my restaurant meals are skyrocketing in price? Gone to the store lately Obama?
The markets will want to go down, countered by more FED MONEY. When the market corrects again, the US DOLLAR will rally one more time, so we wait for another dollar rally, then ADD more interest rate funds. (See previous newsletters). The FEDS will again try and stimulate but the world is tiring of UNCLE SAMS borrowing. The chickens are getting restless.
And a house recovery?
PLEEEAASE. How many times can you cry wolf. Wednesday last week brought news that new home sales dropped 11 % to an annual rate of 355,000, yet existing home sales came in above expectations the day before? Well, what would you expect if 33 % of those existing sales were foreclosures? Getting better? Foreclosures are rising still and reworked mortgages are defaulting at an alarming rate. All those “ Home Mortgage Relief Programs” you are hearing about are causing those “relieved” and “bailout” homeowners to re-default AGAIN just months after their payments are lowered. Like I keep saying, until they do an all out REDUCTION of principal program, reworking the interest rate and payments WONT WORK. Not that I am in favor of lowering principal mind you, I AM NOT. But you can count on another ANNOUNCEMENT with emphasis next on reducing the actual amount you owe. Like I said in 2006 on Show # 8: When the housing S___ hits the fan, you will see the government paying off mortgages. And that means YOU will be paying for your neighbor granite counter tops and all those vacations and cars he bought with his refi’s. DISGRACEFUL.
There are more contradictions but I will cover them later.
In other news:
Super Dividends Payers will have some changes now that year end distributions are declared. This year for all stock was terrible needless to say.
IFN - INDIA FUND will not pay a dividend this year so a SELL is in order, unless you just want to hold it for an INDIA play. I am not.
BEP – S and P 500 COVERED CALL FUND will pay a dividend then the fund will close. SELL before end of January. I am selling NOW.
Replace these with others on the list but wait until we see which ones to add in JANUARY after distributions are declared.
Right now you can look at a STOCK called STONEMOR PARTNERS. SYMBOL: STON. They are in the cemetery business and pay 11 %. Look at is this way, they’ll never run out of clients!
All other holdings- no change. I will keep you updated as best I can.
Website:
Free show # 2 is available to all visitors. Go to FREE SHOW on left menu bar. I will update the DREAM PORTOFLIO and SUPER DIVIDEND PAYERS LISTS soon. Been busy and want to wait until year end distributions to see what changes we need to make. New shows and newscasts have now been posted as well as more SPECIAL FEATURES which include a link to FALL OF THE REPUBLIC and yours truly dispelling the question on whether I can play a guitar. Check it out if you dare.
Facebook:
We now have a MONEY MATTERS FAN CLUB at http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?ref=name&id=1602502823#/pages/Money-.... Join up and chat with other members about money. Also now on TWITTER.
Upcoming Show:
First and third week of January. Noon PST. Topics on KVMR’s program guide.
Kudos:
A big thanks to MS. LINDSEY CAMPBELL, whose has been a godsend in helping me manage all this stuff. You might remember Lindsey, she did the news on KVMR until school commitments forced her to leave. I grabbed her and she put her nose to the grindstone to help all of us through this madness. THANK YOU LINDSEY! Check her out on facebook.
All for now,
Marc
I hope everyone had a great Christmas remembering the reason for the season. Markets were boring as we indicated they would be and gold did hop around a bit as expected. This time of year is usually slow with a new optimism into January. The “January” effect is a phenomenon where by some think we can tell what the rest of the market year will be by January’s action. Last year if you recall, the markets welcomed Obama to the party by beginning a stomach churning drop on inauguration day of all times. In the words of the movie “Die Hard”
“Welcome to the party pal!”
How will this January play out? No one knows. Half the articles say up and away into 2010, the other half say the market is overbought and a new leg down will begin. My guess is early on the markets will continue to hop around until a bias is established a few weeks into January. The market is way overbought but that don’t mean it can’t stay overbought as markets stay illogical much longer then you might think. I talked to someone this week that got clobbered by trying to guess the market turn in early summer, and bet heavily on a fall, only to lose a pot load as the market continued to rally. Never bet heavy one way or another. Hedge, get income, protect and stay safe. Gamble on high gain- low risk plays like oil was last year and natural gas is now. Limited downside, high potential upside, with at least a 3 to 1 ratio. Can you say Natural Gas?
Interest rates are slowly climbing but that doesn’t mean a US dollar crash is imminent. It will probably play out like this. Once the stimulus money wears thin, and unemployment continues to takes its toll on spending, the spinsters will lose their spell casting ability and Joe Sixpack will begin to realize the recovery isn’t all its chalked up to be. After all, if Government borrowing and spending could solve a bad economy, there would be no bad economies, right? Well, just look around. They are everywhere, despite the biggest spending free for all in history. Even with all this money being spent, literally OFF THE CHARTS stimulus, the indicators are barely budging. And those indicators are massaged like a KOBE COW before slaughtering. Tracking the statistics they way they should be. (See shadowstats.com among others), the real tale is of an economy barely standing.
Production is said to be up as well as spending according to Washington. But just out today, tax receipts are continuing down on every level of government. Tax receipts reflect what is REALLY happening in corporate profits and sales. How can tax receipts be down if profits are up?
Illogical? Yup. It reflects the massaging of statistics.
And can you count borrowing in your house as income? Hardly, but Washington spends more borrowed money then puts out figures that show production is up and the economy is getting better. What a joke.
Inflation is said to be tame, but rice is up 63 %, and soybeans, coffee, just about everything is rising again by leaps and bounds. How can they say inflation is nil when my restaurant meals are skyrocketing in price? Gone to the store lately Obama?
The markets will want to go down, countered by more FED MONEY. When the market corrects again, the US DOLLAR will rally one more time, so we wait for another dollar rally, then ADD more interest rate funds. (See previous newsletters). The FEDS will again try and stimulate but the world is tiring of UNCLE SAMS borrowing. The chickens are getting restless.
And a house recovery?
PLEEEAASE. How many times can you cry wolf. Wednesday last week brought news that new home sales dropped 11 % to an annual rate of 355,000, yet existing home sales came in above expectations the day before? Well, what would you expect if 33 % of those existing sales were foreclosures? Getting better? Foreclosures are rising still and reworked mortgages are defaulting at an alarming rate. All those “ Home Mortgage Relief Programs” you are hearing about are causing those “relieved” and “bailout” homeowners to re-default AGAIN just months after their payments are lowered. Like I keep saying, until they do an all out REDUCTION of principal program, reworking the interest rate and payments WONT WORK. Not that I am in favor of lowering principal mind you, I AM NOT. But you can count on another ANNOUNCEMENT with emphasis next on reducing the actual amount you owe. Like I said in 2006 on Show # 8: When the housing S___ hits the fan, you will see the government paying off mortgages. And that means YOU will be paying for your neighbor granite counter tops and all those vacations and cars he bought with his refi’s. DISGRACEFUL.
There are more contradictions but I will cover them later.
In other news:
Super Dividends Payers will have some changes now that year end distributions are declared. This year for all stock was terrible needless to say.
IFN - INDIA FUND will not pay a dividend this year so a SELL is in order, unless you just want to hold it for an INDIA play. I am not.
BEP – S and P 500 COVERED CALL FUND will pay a dividend then the fund will close. SELL before end of January. I am selling NOW.
Replace these with others on the list but wait until we see which ones to add in JANUARY after distributions are declared.
Right now you can look at a STOCK called STONEMOR PARTNERS. SYMBOL: STON. They are in the cemetery business and pay 11 %. Look at is this way, they’ll never run out of clients!
All other holdings- no change. I will keep you updated as best I can.
Website:
Free show # 2 is available to all visitors. Go to FREE SHOW on left menu bar. I will update the DREAM PORTOFLIO and SUPER DIVIDEND PAYERS LISTS soon. Been busy and want to wait until year end distributions to see what changes we need to make. New shows and newscasts have now been posted as well as more SPECIAL FEATURES which include a link to FALL OF THE REPUBLIC and yours truly dispelling the question on whether I can play a guitar. Check it out if you dare.
Facebook:
We now have a MONEY MATTERS FAN CLUB at http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?ref=name&id=1602502823#/pages/Money-.... Join up and chat with other members about money. Also now on TWITTER.
Upcoming Show:
First and third week of January. Noon PST. Topics on KVMR’s program guide.
Kudos:
A big thanks to MS. LINDSEY CAMPBELL, whose has been a godsend in helping me manage all this stuff. You might remember Lindsey, she did the news on KVMR until school commitments forced her to leave. I grabbed her and she put her nose to the grindstone to help all of us through this madness. THANK YOU LINDSEY! Check her out on facebook.
All for now,
Marc
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