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Holdings Change- Sell the Yen. Add Natural Gas Today. Update. January 20, 2010
Marc’s Notes:
Stocks fell today for no good reason I could see except the Democrats lost Kennedy’s seat which means Obama may have trouble continuing to spend money like a drunken sailor. Other items include falling house starts but permits jumped. This means little. Homebuilders built throughout the boom and bust so what do they know. Not enough for us judge a housing prediction on, that’s for sure. These guys know little about MACRO (big picture) economics.Don’t look to them for guidance. All of them fell victim to Mr. Bubble and did their customers much harm by force feeding houses into the mouths of the economically ignorant. Shame on all of them who helped fuel the fire that eventually exploded in everybody’s faces.
Meanwhile the 3 Federal Home Loan originators, FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now are responsible for almost ALL home loans. This means regular credit markets think housing is TOO RISKY, so they won’t lend on it. If private investors and banks WON’T lend to home buyers, it means they think housing is too risky. The government is the only entity foolish enough to give a loan to a home buyer. If that’s the case, maybe you shouldn’t be buying. Actually you are though….. through the FHA, Fannie and Freddie you are buying, by lending and backstopping all new home loans with tax dollars. How is that for an investment!
You didn’t even know you were buying did you? If you are buying or considering buying a home to LIVE IN however, and need an agent, contact my friend Wayne Teague at (530) 913-6824. You will him find honest, knowledgeable and helpful. Not only because he is a friend, but because I know Wayne and he is as honest as they get, and in this market, you really need that type of person looking out for you. Give him a call and tell him I sent you. With all the bad housing stuff I am putting out lately, he may forgive me! (Love you my friend!)
That being said, the policies for obtaining a home loan now are almost as BAD as they were in the boom. The government, in an attempt to bail out and prop up the housing market is insisting these government loan agencies continue with very low requirements for potential buyers. They are allowing low income buyers, very low down payments, subsidizing down payments, rebating down payments, and fostering ridiculously low interest rates, all in an attempt to re-inflate the housing bubble.
Do we want this bubble to re-inflate? Absolutely not! It is what helped cause this downturn. Now they want to do it AGAIN? Is this absurd or what? I will tell you right now, they will see more defaults, rising foreclosures, and Fannie, Freddie and FHA will need billions more in bailout money, and continue to need billions until they stop this insane money lending to a deflating asset. (homes).
You will see a new BLOW UP and MELT DOWN in all things debt related, starting with more news on bank failures, FHA needing more money, Fannie needing more money, and Freddie needing more money.
The conundrum: Put the screws down on lending requirements and send housing further into the tank. They’ve boxed themselves into a corner and will reap the rewards. You and I will pay the price unfortunately, in higher taxes and higher inflation.
Dow 10,500 is resistance both up and down. The markets will break soon, probably downward. Prepare. The US Dollar is yielding its death bell rally. We will add interest rate funds soon.
Change in holdings:
Sell FXY the Japan Yen fund now. Its top is here or close to it. Japan has printed all it can get away with and has promised to not let the YEN go higher. Move those funds to FXA, FXF and FXC for now. Continue to add SAFE MONEY FUNDS to BIL, SHV, SHY, VIPSX and TIP. Use BIL and SHV for a less volatile play. These are the most stable of the 5 listed.
Gold and Silver: add Physical at any time for insurance. Hold off on adding any large amounts of gold stocks. A stock market crash will send gold lower and rally the US Dollar temporarily.
Oil: Hold.
Natural Gas; ADD both GAZ and UNG here right NOW. (Gamblers only or small amounts for regular investors). Real gamblers can add CALL OPTIONS on UNG and GAZ, look at the APRILS,in the money calls or close to in the money calls and SELL immediately on any 10 % pop in the underlying stock. DO NOT HOLD for bigger gains or you are playing with fire.
Dividend Payers; HOLD- do not add at this time except for small amounts in ENERGY payers- See Dividend Payers list, it has been recently updated on the website.
Interest rate funds- You should already hold TBT and RRPIX in modest amounts. HOLD but do not add. Soon I will tell you to add more and also add TMV to our list, but NOT NOW.
Swiss Annuities; ADD. The overseas window is closing in my opinion. This is an important holding and diversification, I cannot stress that enough. Order up the free booklet on my site on the right side banner. SWISS ADVANTAGE. It was just updated and is easy and GREAT reading! I just read the new version myself.
(I am sorry for making you move funds around, but BUY AND HOLD does not work so we must to avoid losses in this crazy economic environment run by fools).
Upcoming show:
Tomorrow, January 21, Noon PST www.kvmr.org or listen live 89.5 in No. California or 105.1 FM in Tahoe area. Out of area listeners can go to the site and click on the station red button icon which lights up when we are on the air. Topic: “Whats Next” Predictions for 2010.
Pledge Drive: NEXT THURSDAY, 2 hour pledge drive. I will again read my personal holdings on the air. I made some changes since last time so you will want to hear this show.
All for now,
Marc
Stocks fell today for no good reason I could see except the Democrats lost Kennedy’s seat which means Obama may have trouble continuing to spend money like a drunken sailor. Other items include falling house starts but permits jumped. This means little. Homebuilders built throughout the boom and bust so what do they know. Not enough for us judge a housing prediction on, that’s for sure. These guys know little about MACRO (big picture) economics.Don’t look to them for guidance. All of them fell victim to Mr. Bubble and did their customers much harm by force feeding houses into the mouths of the economically ignorant. Shame on all of them who helped fuel the fire that eventually exploded in everybody’s faces.
Meanwhile the 3 Federal Home Loan originators, FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now are responsible for almost ALL home loans. This means regular credit markets think housing is TOO RISKY, so they won’t lend on it. If private investors and banks WON’T lend to home buyers, it means they think housing is too risky. The government is the only entity foolish enough to give a loan to a home buyer. If that’s the case, maybe you shouldn’t be buying. Actually you are though….. through the FHA, Fannie and Freddie you are buying, by lending and backstopping all new home loans with tax dollars. How is that for an investment!
You didn’t even know you were buying did you? If you are buying or considering buying a home to LIVE IN however, and need an agent, contact my friend Wayne Teague at (530) 913-6824. You will him find honest, knowledgeable and helpful. Not only because he is a friend, but because I know Wayne and he is as honest as they get, and in this market, you really need that type of person looking out for you. Give him a call and tell him I sent you. With all the bad housing stuff I am putting out lately, he may forgive me! (Love you my friend!)
That being said, the policies for obtaining a home loan now are almost as BAD as they were in the boom. The government, in an attempt to bail out and prop up the housing market is insisting these government loan agencies continue with very low requirements for potential buyers. They are allowing low income buyers, very low down payments, subsidizing down payments, rebating down payments, and fostering ridiculously low interest rates, all in an attempt to re-inflate the housing bubble.
Do we want this bubble to re-inflate? Absolutely not! It is what helped cause this downturn. Now they want to do it AGAIN? Is this absurd or what? I will tell you right now, they will see more defaults, rising foreclosures, and Fannie, Freddie and FHA will need billions more in bailout money, and continue to need billions until they stop this insane money lending to a deflating asset. (homes).
You will see a new BLOW UP and MELT DOWN in all things debt related, starting with more news on bank failures, FHA needing more money, Fannie needing more money, and Freddie needing more money.
The conundrum: Put the screws down on lending requirements and send housing further into the tank. They’ve boxed themselves into a corner and will reap the rewards. You and I will pay the price unfortunately, in higher taxes and higher inflation.
Dow 10,500 is resistance both up and down. The markets will break soon, probably downward. Prepare. The US Dollar is yielding its death bell rally. We will add interest rate funds soon.
Change in holdings:
Sell FXY the Japan Yen fund now. Its top is here or close to it. Japan has printed all it can get away with and has promised to not let the YEN go higher. Move those funds to FXA, FXF and FXC for now. Continue to add SAFE MONEY FUNDS to BIL, SHV, SHY, VIPSX and TIP. Use BIL and SHV for a less volatile play. These are the most stable of the 5 listed.
Gold and Silver: add Physical at any time for insurance. Hold off on adding any large amounts of gold stocks. A stock market crash will send gold lower and rally the US Dollar temporarily.
Oil: Hold.
Natural Gas; ADD both GAZ and UNG here right NOW. (Gamblers only or small amounts for regular investors). Real gamblers can add CALL OPTIONS on UNG and GAZ, look at the APRILS,in the money calls or close to in the money calls and SELL immediately on any 10 % pop in the underlying stock. DO NOT HOLD for bigger gains or you are playing with fire.
Dividend Payers; HOLD- do not add at this time except for small amounts in ENERGY payers- See Dividend Payers list, it has been recently updated on the website.
Interest rate funds- You should already hold TBT and RRPIX in modest amounts. HOLD but do not add. Soon I will tell you to add more and also add TMV to our list, but NOT NOW.
Swiss Annuities; ADD. The overseas window is closing in my opinion. This is an important holding and diversification, I cannot stress that enough. Order up the free booklet on my site on the right side banner. SWISS ADVANTAGE. It was just updated and is easy and GREAT reading! I just read the new version myself.
(I am sorry for making you move funds around, but BUY AND HOLD does not work so we must to avoid losses in this crazy economic environment run by fools).
Upcoming show:
Tomorrow, January 21, Noon PST www.kvmr.org or listen live 89.5 in No. California or 105.1 FM in Tahoe area. Out of area listeners can go to the site and click on the station red button icon which lights up when we are on the air. Topic: “Whats Next” Predictions for 2010.
Pledge Drive: NEXT THURSDAY, 2 hour pledge drive. I will again read my personal holdings on the air. I made some changes since last time so you will want to hear this show.
All for now,
Marc
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