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Gold and Silver update April 27 2025

Humm, what should I do?

Historical Precedent spells opportunity

I have covered gold here in Money Matters on numerous occasions and the price of gold certainly has been on a tear as of late. Up from the few hundred bucks an ounce in the 1970’s, it has recently reached new high after new high, blasting through the $3,000/ounce level last month and now stands 10% higher in the $3,300/ounce range.

Gold is thought of by many investors to be an inflation hedge. Monetary authorities throughout the world also pay attention to, and acquire the yellow metal for their sovereign investments. This means that certain countries may buy gold for their own government accounts using their “central banks” to do so. A central bank is a “country’s official government bank” sort of speak, and these banks control the supply and issuance of each countries respective currency.

Not talked about as much however, is golds cousin, silver. Silver may also be thought of as a possible inflation hedge, and is sometimes called the “poor man’s gold”.

It is called that as silver is a heck of a lot cheaper than gold, clocking in at $33/ounce as the time of this writing. With gold around $3,300/ounce, that makes the current price ratio of gold to silver about 100 to 1. This means one could buy either 100 ounces of silver or one ounce of gold.

This 100 to 1 ratio is, to say the least, more than out of skew with historical ratios of gold to silver.

Those living in Nevada County in Northern California might have heard of the 16 to 1 mine (16:1) located in Alleghany, California. The gold mine was shut down in 1965 and was named 16:1 to reflect the price ratio of silver to gold that existed many decades ago.

When I was growing up and through my teen years, because I had an interest in economics since my childhood (odd I know), I was familiar with this 16:1 ratio back then and indeed, throughout my entire life.

Over the decades since the 70’s, the ration of gold to silver has been on a seemingly relentless climb with only brief pullbacks. Having reached almost 100 to one way back in the 1940’s, it pulled back in the 16:1 range around 1968.

Needless to say, at a ratio of 100 to 1, the ratio has rarely been higher and when it reaches these levels, historically one of two things happens. Either the price of gold falls to bring the ratio more in line with the averages or the price of silver rises.

Although the ratio could go higher still, looking at a 100 year chart, we are definitely at the top of its ratio range.

Many of the newsletters and articles I see from within my circles have noticed the data and are calling for a spike in silver prices. I tend to agree and indeed, the price of silver has been rising. Having sold at under $8 bucks/ounce in 2002 and almost cresting $50 bucks/ounce in 2011, it has visited the $20 range a few times since then. Only recently has it been rising past $30/ounce and some say it is destined for much higher prices.

Realizing the gold to silver ratio is almost as high as it’s ever been in the last hundred years or so, the recent rise in silver prices along with a very high gold to silver price ratio could mean the poor man’s gold (silver) is ready to run. Some analysts are calling for a $50/ounce price with a year and I have seen as high as $5,000/ounce may be in the cards sometime in the future.

That said, silver could reverse course and fall back to wherever, and gold could come crashing down, bringing the gold to silver ratio back to within normal range.

In conclusion, one can never tell if markets will stretch even more out of whack compared to historical precedents or be setting up to bring in enormous profits to those who notice such things.

In the end however, buyer beware is always in play. Markets have risk and investors can lose some or all of their money playing them. It is always wise to seek out the help of an investment professional to better understand markets and their movements. Either that or contain your investing to FDIC insured products which may protect your principal no matter what happens.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, and California Insurance License #0L34249 His insurance agency is BAP INC. insurance services. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com

We also can buy GOLD MINER STOCKS. See me for details if you have questions

marc

Annuity or Anomally Update April 26 2025

With no downside possible, but participating in up markets, certain annuities can allow you to relax knowing market upsets won't hurt your balances.

I published a newsletter last week detailing how it may be possible to garner double digit returns and/or a steady income stream for life even if you end up collecting more than you put in. With the markets continuing to erode, people are getting worried and rightly so.

With concerns about keeping up with inflation, running out of money or losing a good portion of your retirement funds in a market crash, the search is on for viable and realistic alternatives.

There are strategies an investor can consider instead of just buying stocks and hoping they go up.

Annuities are popular with some. While some analysts and advisors bad mouth anything that even resembles an annuity, the truth is most of us may already be participating in an annuity unknowingly.

From the Oxford dictionary, an annuity is described as: “a fixed sum of money paid to someone each year, typically for the rest of their life and/or a form of insurance or investment entitling the investor to a series of annual sums”.

Basically you give an entity money and they pay you back in payments over a specific period of time. I consider pension plans to be an annuity like mechanism as well as social security. Whole life insurance policies may also resemble annuities.

In all of these programs, an investor has paid money to some entity and that entity has promised to pay something back to you later.

In the case of social security, that entity is the U.S. Social Security program. In pension plans, like CalPERS, CalSTRS or a corporate pension plans, the entity may be a company or entity you worked for or are associated with.

I find it a bit humorous that annuities are looked down upon when even those that steer investors away from them may participate in an annuity like retirement plan themselves.

Truth be told, annuities can be complicated and in my opinion, have to be looked at very carefully before investing in one. I look at literally hundreds of types of annuities and most of them are, in my opinion, have too many unknowns. The contracts are lengthy and, even to me, be confusing and unclear.

That said, there are a few I find that are simple and easy to explain and can be fully understood by the client.

Many can offer upside market participation yet will avoid any reduction in principal if the market crashes. Some offer lifetime income that can pay out more than you put in and others may offer a return higher than the market in certain circumstances.

When I first meet with investors, some tell me “I want to make money but don’t want to lose any”.

Although this statement may sound silly, when I hear it, I immediately think of a particular annuity that may do exactly that. Enable the investor to participate in up markets but avoid the downside.

Many Americans may already unknowingly understand how an annuity operates if they think of any social security, pension or retirement plan that they may already participate in. Although annuities are none of the above, conceptualizing how the above programs pay out may help an investor better understand the annuity concept.

Disclaimer: Annuity product guarantees rely on the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurer and are not guaranteed by any bank or credit union and are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency. Surrender or early withdrawal charges may apply to during the surrender period. Rates may be subject to change during the life of the contract. Annuities may or may not be suitable for all investors. Please review the prospectus carefully and consult your financial and tax professional before investing. This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, and California Insurance License #0L34249 His insurance agency is BAP INC. insurance services. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com

UPDATE APRIL 19 2025

IS FDIC INSURANCE BETTER THAN ANNUITY INSURANCE BY THE LARGE INSURANCE COMPANIES

HINT: MAYBE ITS NOT WHAT YOU THINK

KEEP READING

THE TIMES THEY ARE A'CHANGING

After multiple conversations with clients and readers regarding annuities, I think I need to clarify a few more things for my readers on these products.

For years, I was not a fan of annuities and said as much on my Money Matters media outlets. Years ago, I categorized the annuity universe as the Wild West. Past annuity contracts were complicated, even for me, a Wall Street guy. As the years past however, and the regulation and disclosure requirements got tighter, the companies that sell annuities sharpened their pencils and pressed down hard on their agents to be more diligent on what was sold to whom. They also hammered on their quants (the math guys) to formulate more win-win situations for both the companies and their clients.

Fast forward to today and many are sound products with definitive benefits for many investors.

Many a company produces booklets or videos stating bluntly things like “Don’t buy an annuity”. Usually the companies that use such scare tactics sell things other than annuities and don’t like losing their business to companies that do.

When I ask an investor what an annuity is, few can tell me. An annuity is simply a contract between you and an insurance company. The annuity contract states what you give the company and what the company will give you and when.

Annuities are often offered by household name companies and come in many shapes and colors. And like stocks, there are ones you should consider and some you should not, depending on what your particular needs are.

Many people actually already participate in annuity-like programs but just don’t realize it. Social Security is an annuity-like program. You pay money into an entity (in this case Uncle Sam) and the U.S. government pays you back over time. That’s not the only example.

Have a pension? You have an annuity. Your employer promises to pay you so much for so long for money you put in. In a way, if you have any financial savings or even a stock account, your money is somewhere else other than in your bank account. That means a company promises to pay you for the money you gave them. Sounds kind of like an annuity contract to me.

Annuities are guaranteed by an insurance company. You can Google up an annuity company’s financial rating any day of the week for those skeptical about insurance company guarantees.

There are income annuities that offer to pay you for life regardless of whether you run out of the money you gave them. There are fixed indexed annuities that offer you to participate in the gains of up markets but not down ones. There are guaranteed rate annuities whose only function is to pay you a fixed annual interest rate like a bank CD or T-bill. Just remember annuities are not federally insured because they are not offered by the federal government.

The length of terms for annuities can vary from a year to many years. Many annuities have no sales fees and some may even add bonus amounts to your deposited amount. There may be early or excessive withdrawal penalties however so read the fine print.

In a nutshell, these are not your father’s annuities. There are terms and conditions of course and they are there to protect both you and the insurance company but I, for one, am glad everything is carefully thought out and spelled out. This helps to insure the company can fulfill its promises to you and that you will know exactly what you are getting and when.

I find that as a market analyst, financial consultant, insurance agent, agency owner and one involved in the markets since about 1971, there are many annuities that are simple, easy to understand and appropriate for certain investors.

Often people forget that when utilizing an insurance product, you are TRANSFERING some of your risk to the issuer of the insurance. They rightfully can be expected to ask for compensation in return for accepting this risk or why would they do it?

In essence, they attempt to structure that win-win formula I mentioned, and in my opinion, many do just that. The best way I describe my favorite annuity program is that you may not make as much money as if you were solely in the markets, as you have transferred some or all of that risk to the issuing company. But the products are structured so some of the gains may be shared with the investor all the while attempting to minimize risk for those that want to take less risk with their retirement savings.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

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Update April 15 2025 Tax Day

Tax Deferred Income

Tax deferred income in the double digits possible?

Yes

Buy a stock that historically looks like this?

Yes It is real

Need a no risk solution to the markets where you get upside market moverment but no downside?

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Marc

(530) 559- 1214

BUY AND HOLD OR SELL AND FOLD UPDATE APRIL 4 2025

"WE ARE SURE GLAD WE USE GOOD MONEYMANAGEMENT"

MONEY MATTERS

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In times like these, the stock market mantra of “buy and hold” just doesn’t seem to cut it. I know they also say “hold for the long term” but I, like the rest of you, don’t know how much “long” I have in my term. This especially applies to those of us who are a bit older. I use the word “bit” with the proverbial tongue in cheek.

In any case, those that have attended one of my investing seminars (there is one coming up in the fall at Placer College for Adults in Auburn) , I always tell the story of when I was a young trader and in 1987, in one day (called Black Monday) I lost a cool 45% of my account, roughly 180 grand.

Let me tell you, that is not a pleasant feeling. It stayed with me for months. I still get a stomach ache when I think about it.

They say something good comes out of all things that happen to us. I know that’s debatable, but one thing it taught me is to swear I would never have a “gave it all back” stock moment again.

It was then and there I came up with the slot machine theory of investing. It means for the many of us that have played the “one armed bandit”, when people play a slot machine, most people exercise good money management. Which is to say when they lose a certain amount they just walk away and go to the bar.

On the contrary, many investors and advisors don’t follow that advice and instead adopt “the market always goes up over time” mantra.

It goes something like this: You make some money, or start out opening an account, and the market then drops 5%, and your advisor says (or your brain says), “ I’m only down 5%, don’t worry about it”. Then the market drops 10% and you rinse and repeat that thought. Ditto down 15%, down 20% down 25%. Somewhere around down 30% or more, you call your advisor in a panic and say “Hey Ed, I am now down a lot of money and I want to sell out”.

Basically you have reached your “get up and walk away” slot machine moment. The advisor (or your brain) then chimes in and says “You’re down too far, you don’t want to sell out now”.

Hummm…

So if you use this strategy in Vegas sitting in front of some slot, you don’t walk away, but instead go back to the ATM and get more money. That’s because “you’re down too far” and don’t want to quit now.

Although some investors have the CAJONES to hold through thick and thin and watch their life savings evaporate, I am not one of them, and maybe you aren’t either.

It is true, the market has a continually upward slope to it over the decades but there are a few issues with using that as an excuse to never sell your stocks.

Case in point: the recent months of this market rout may have wiped out a year’s gains or more. Indeed some stocks have lost 10, 20 or 30 percent. Another reason to get up and walk out of the casino of stocks is that it may take a very long time to recover losses or regain previous profits. After the 1929 crash, it took 25 years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to eclipse its previous high. The NASDAQ took 15 years to recover after the dot.com crash. There are many more examples of long wait times to recover from a previous hammering.

True, all those markets did eventually recover, but had an investor sold and just put those monies in the bank instead of hanging out in those floundering markets for all that time, the compounding interest on savings accounts or CD may have returned incredible gains compared to someone who just sat and “held for the long term”.

In conclusion, there is a time to be in an asset and a time not to. Had an investor at least taken some money off the table at market highs, and/or acted when markets began to sell off, and then bought back in closer to, or at a market bottom, the gains may have been many multiples higher than those who just “rode it out”.

Knowing when to sell and buy is the trick, and having a clue as to what might precede or at least hint at turning points in the markets can take years of training and experience. I know the recommendations to “hold for the long term” are many, but in my opinion, come from those that simply follow the crowd and may not take the time to really study what is going on in the lobbies of American business and the ivory halls of both Wall Street and Washington.

Knowing what to do could be as simple as setting a limit of your losses when markets correct. Simply use the slot machine theory of “I have lost enough money and am getting up and leaving the casino for now”.

Either that or buy and hold for the long term and just keep holding through thick or thin.

And how’s that working out for you?

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end) As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly THANKS (Regulations)

You can sign up for his Investing class at Placer School for Adults (530) 885.8585. This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, and California Insurance License #0L34249 His insurance agency is BAP INC. insurance services. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com.

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Marc Cuniberti (530)272-2298 Cell (530) 559-1214 Bay Area Process, Inc. encompasses all business related communications and all communique should be regarded as coming from the corporation of Bay Area Process Inc. Pumps, parts, systems. Open 24 hours, 365 days/ week. (800) 326 4039 FAX (530) 272 2753 MEMBER- KVMR FM RADIO 89.5/105.1 FM and on affiliated stations nationwide on PRX and Audioport Money Matters Economic Commentary and News Publications. This email and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the `system` manager. This message contains confidential information and is intended only for the individual named. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately by e-mail if you have received this e-mail by mistake and delete this e-mail from your system. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. California Insurance #0L34249. Insurance customers. Please read: No warranty is made as to the adequacy of any insurance quoted coverages or otherwise. Coverage acceptance is left up to the customer to determine if limits are sufficient.

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