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Update Market Nursery Rhymes

History never repeats exactly but it does rhyme. This means never the same thing happens twice but similar things often do.

I look back at how many articles, shows and newscasts I have done on asset bubbles and I do see a lot of rhyming poetry pieces.

So once again, I delve into another economic children’s rhyme dealing with bubbles, manias and amateur stock buyers.

And yes, the three do go together. And no matter how many times we see stock charts or the price of some other asset go straight up, that “straight up” price action is caused by everybody and their mother buying something just because it goes up. And the higher and faster it goes up, the more the amateurs pile in thinking they have found the holy grail.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s not just mothers, fathers, daughters and sons that are piling in, but seasoned (I use that word loosely) advisors, investors, news anchors and market cheerleaders as well.

And no matter how often I see it, and warn people about it, and write about it, and broadcast over the air about it, the rising prices of whatever it is that is rising, keep rising.

The price charts of these things, whether it be stocks, real estate, tulip bulbs, ostrich farms, railroads, or a thousand other things that have bubbled up and then blown up, the pattern is always the same. Or at least it rhymes a hell of a lot.

The latest and greatest include Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. In my August 25^th article entitled “Another Bubble”, I touched on the AI stocks and their bubble like appearance. I covered the AI mania also in two other articles and a radio show or two.

When we see price charts that go straight up, as in almost vertical, I hearken back to Economics 101 Class where we learned vertical lines are bad. Nature always seeks to return to the “mean”, which is a fancy way to say seeks out the averages more often than anything else. That’s what a mean, means. In other words, yeah it gets super-hot on some days, and super cold on some days, but the average temperature is somewhere in between. Not rocket science.

It’s the same with stock prices. Some go straight up, and some go straight down, but they all have a mean. Or better said, straight lines in either direction don’t stay straight forever. And what goes up, goes where now class?

Correct.

That doesn’t mean a stock will return to its average range or price. What it does mean is that stocks that go straight up for an extended period usually reflect that buyers may just be buying because the price is going up and going up fast. That can lead to investors (if you can call them that), just buying regardless of what the company under that stock does, what its earnings are or what product it sells.

Think PETS.COM or DOT.COM in general.

The DOT.COM stock mania was a bubble, characterized by the near straight up price chart of many of DOT.COM era stocks.

And yes, it happened with Tulip Bulbs long ago in the Netherlands, Texas real estate in the oil boom period and like I said, a thousand other areas over eons of time and in countries and regions far and wide.

Fast forward to the AI stocks of today, and once again the proverbial straight up price chart is the movie of the day.

The last week brought about significant corrections in these stocks as did a few months back and it seems the party may be coming to an end.

And as usual, there are many hanger-oners clasping to the familiar story is that its temporary and it will come back better and higher than ever.

Can’t really say what will happen as such is the way of markets. But those vertical lines in the prices of some of these stocks look hauntingly familiar.

As will the cliffs they fall off of if indeed the party is about to end and the nightmare is about to begin.

Not saying it will happen, but I have read this book before.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, and California Insurance License #0L34249 His insurance agency is BAP INC. insurance services. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com

Public or Private Investments Update Dec 11 2025

Money Matters worth listening to!

Over the years, I have been repeatedly asked by investors not how to put them in an investment, but how to get them out of one.

One would think to get out of an investment, you just pick up the phone and say sell to the person on the other end.

Not so when it comes to certain investments.

I break investments into two categories: “public and privates”. You won’t be able to google up the meanings as these are my own and they refer to whether an investment is listed on a public platform where they can be sold right away or if one has to call the specific company and ask to be let out.

You would think one could get out of an investment if its losing money or not paying you what you expected, but not so with ones that fall under my “privates” designation.

I often hear advertisements on social media or other types of media touting higher annual returns than one might get through more common investments like CDs, bonds, dividend paying stocks or other types you might know of.

The most common types are usually energy trusts, real estate based investments or whatever.

The privates I speak of are usually only offered to “accredited” investors but not always. An accredited investor has a certain income or net worth, or have other means of being labeled accredited, but a lot of normal folks qualify.

Usually the privates are not quoted in the Wall Street journal and therefore their day to day market values might be essentially unknown.

For example, you hear or see an ad touting annual returns of 9-15% or more and it’s from a company you never heard of. If it’s an energy trust per se, it might say they have so and so many power plants or oil wells or whatever. You are offered shares of the entity and they promise you these outsized returns. If it’s a private real estate deal, they might try and impress you with a list of their properties. You like the returns and the story is a good one so you decide to give them some money and buy some shares.

The paperwork is usually massive with lots of small print, lots of terms and conditions, and lots of “outs” for them. The salesperson is nice and the brochure is impressive, so like many people, you don’t go through the fine print with a fine toothed brush, so you sign.

The first thing that should come to mind is why are they paying you double digit returns when the current lending rates might be around 5%?

Answer: the reason is because they may not be able to convince typical entities like banks or business development lenders to loan them any money.

You can guess the reason. If you can’t, think perceived risk by professional lenders. I mean, why would they pay such high rates if they could go to a bank or venture capitalist and get more normal rates?

Secondly, whereas publically traded investments can usually be bought and sold on a whim by calling your broker, these privates usually restrict withdrawals on a certain day (s) of the year and require written advance notice.

Remember all that fine print you didn’t take hours to read and instead took the word of that salesmen that got you so excited?

That fine print usually contains liquidity clauses that might limit the selling of shares. Common restrictions I have seen might be when you can sell shares, how much you can sell, and a shut-off clause that says if the underlying asset is underperforming, hindered in any way or the overall sector or market is down, you can’t sell any at all.

And good luck getting a current market value. Basically, market value it whatever the issuing company is willing to give you and even getting that on any particular day can be next to impossible and additionally, highly suspect as to its accuracy.

Sound dangerous? Believe you me, it has happened a LOT from what I have seen. And I see it when investors need help in redeeming what they can, or just get out altogether.

From my experience, in trying to unwrap one of these (actually many), the paperwork is massive, ambiguous with iron clad clauses. And not in your favor.

Since most traditional brokerages usually won’t take these over nor help you cash them out, the investor is left to twist in the wind at the mercy of the issuing company and their army of lawyers and voice mail machines.

Sound like a nightmare?

It can be.

In conclusion, there are options in the public markets that strive to give investors commiserate opportunities. The public markets can usually provide accurate minute by minute quotes, quarterly earnings reports, and selling doesn’t require an act of God. You can usually get out in a matter of minutes when the applicable markets are open.

Privates or public?

Sounds like a no brainer to me.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

Ask me about Lifetime Income possibly in the double digits if you are over 65 and close to it if you are younger!

Marc (530)559 1214

All about them Roundabouts December 6 2025

Trucks on a roundabout?

The average American wastes about one week a year sitting in traffic, so says the Commercial Carrier Journal. They put a dollar figure on it of about $771.00 annually but since its a week sitting in the car going nowhere, I guess it depends on how much you make a week doesn’t it.

All I know if I spend a 40-hour week sitting in unnecessary traffic jams, I would probably eat close to that in gas, let alone the lost productivity.

I don’t think about this particular economic cost to mankind very often as we all just kind of accept traffic with a grrr, but it came to mind again when I made my usual drive down to Auburn on highway 49 and hit an atypical traffic jam about halfway down a few months past. After 10 minutes of creeping along, I came upon the reason for the jam up and it was a new roundabout.

It had a weird jig and a jag into this odd circle of lines and the other cars maneuvered as tenderly as I did trying to avoid hitting someone else during the exercise. No doubt all of us were trying to comprehend how this thing was laid out, seeing it for the first time and all.

No sooner then we popped out of the thing, a little further down the road another new roundabout appeared and caused about the same confusion as the first one.

I use the word roundabout loosely here. It was more of a what’s-this thing- about.

Actually both of them were odd. I didn’t recall any big intersecting side roads that would necessitate either of the new roundabouts. Maybe I don’t know the area well enough, but I do drive the route on occasion and don’t recall any big clusters happening anywhere near these areas in previous trips down 49 that would require traffic mediation when it comes to needing a roundabout.

I am sure some of you know whence of where I speak when it comes to these two roundabouts and it got me thinking of how these things are engineered the way they are.

Speaking with other drivers who have gone through these two clusters brought them to the same conclusion I did.

Who the heck engineered this thing and if it was a school project he or she probably would have received an F if the grade was arrived at by popular demand.

Frankly roundabouts are supposed to make things smoother and only be installed where they are needed. When it came to these two labyrinths I saw nothing of the sort. What once was a smooth sailing trip is now a traffic headache that eventually, and to this day, makes me take highway 80 from my house. This new route turned out to save me about 20 minutes from what it took me now that the new roundabouts were installed.

It reminded me of the roundabout that was installed in Grass Valley where Ridge Road, Zion Street and Nevada City Highway come together. Although not nearly the mazes that the two highway 49 roundabouts are, it’s still a jumbled mess. One has to wonder if these two designers went to the same school or sit back imbibing the same elixirs when coming up with these things.

Ah, but all is not lost when remembering the frustrations of the time spent and accidents had on bad highway designs like these roundabouts. Take the roundabout at East Main and Idaho-Maryland which also has a third leg handling a Highway 20/49 off ramp.

The designer of that ought to be given an award as that is a breeze to navigate and a well-designed and simple roundabout that works like it should.

Sometimes simplicity beats out complexity when it comes to handling people and their cars.

In conclusion, while we all breeze through the Idaho-Maryland/ East Main roundabout, pity those drivers stuck in the new highway 49 concrete whirlpools or new to the Zion Street roundabout trying to figure out which arm goes where to remain accident free.

Considering the enhanced risk, lost time and wasted gas that goes into these badly designed Frankenbouts, and how long these concrete monstrosities will be used by motorists, it might be better just to bite the bullet, tear them down and redo them.

And when you redo them, hunt down the guy or gal that did the East Main beauty, and give a broom to the other two guys.

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Marc Cuniberti (530)272-2298 Cell (530) 559-1214 Bay Area Process, Inc. encompasses all business related communications and all communique should be regarded as coming from the corporation of Bay Area Process Inc. Pumps, parts, systems. Open 24 hours, 365 days/ week. (800) 326 4039 FAX (530) 272 2753 MEMBER- KVMR FM RADIO 89.5/105.1 FM and on affiliated stations nationwide on PRX and Audioport Money Matters Economic Commentary and News Publications. This email and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the `system` manager. This message contains confidential information and is intended only for the individual named. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately by e-mail if you have received this e-mail by mistake and delete this e-mail from your system. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. California Insurance #0L34249

Here we go into the Holidays UPDATE 12 2 2025

Down we go and up we go. More economic news hits the wires. Packaging box sales are down. Everything comes in a box don’t you know. (Yahoo Finance). Freight shipments plunge also from Yahoo Finance.

Signs are popping up everywhere that things are getting more obvious as to the damage inflation is causing.

Meanwhile artificial intelligence stocks hit the roof then that roof turned into a ceiling and last week near week’s end those very same stocks plummeted.

Meanwhile the government reopens as the Democrats capitulate, although it is not for certain who was really at fault, so says the newswires.

Who knows what, or who, really caused all the budget hub bub. But as I penned last week, it’s all about the money. It’s always about the money, so likely Washington, and both political parties, were to blame.

So the question becomes what will the holiday season bring as it pertains to holiday sales. With inflation still burning up prices and both UPS and FEDX having about 10% of their planes grounded because of the horrific crash of a UPS transport jet two weeks back that killed 14 unfortunates, its anyone’s guess how the consumer and the companies that sell to them will negotiate the upcoming season. My guess is not well.

I said the same thing last year but never did see those lagging 2024 holiday sales posted much of anywhere. Good sales numbers they shout from the rooftops. Bad ones are swept under the news rug and one has to dig deep to get them.

Anyway, back to the stock market.

With many of the artificial intelligence (AI) stocks charts looking like one of Elon Musk’s rocket launches, it’s difficult, at least for me, to buy much of anything lately. I am talking about stocks of course.

Take a look at the charts of many of AI stocks like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Palantir (PLTR) or Nvidia (NVDA) and note the almost vertical climb in their stock price over the last year or so.

An advisor I know, in fact many advisors I know, tell me not to worry, and that the markets will continue to rise including those vaulted AI stocks.

Sometimes I wonder what they teach these guys in advisor class. Certainly not what a stock bubble looks like when displayed in a chart.

Note to advisors: Vertical lines that look like rocket ships blasting off are bad.

Yes, they can continue to go higher still. Much higher than one might think. But those rocket ships usually flame out and crash and burn, bringing down investor money with it.

An advisor I know bought DocuSign during the CoVid shutdown period, and watched it rise from around $50 a share to over $300 starting mid-2020 to about late 2021, the shutdown period.

Lots of people were using DocuSign due to being locked out of their offices. As it started to fall, the advisor said “how low could it go?’ and kept holding it. I told him look to where it started its rise (about $50.) and that’s where it could end back up. He laughed and said no way was going back to $50. He was kind of right. It didn’t end up at $50. It went below $20.

The lesson here is the gravy train of mania stocks that experience these sort of ballistic increases are, in my opinion, accidents waiting to happen.

Sure, some people make a lot of money, but some also lose their shirts when they crater.

When people ask me about the stock market now, I have to say I have my doubts that some of these stocks won’t end in some horrific pull back that will shock investors.

Sure, stocks can go a lot higher than anyone expects. And that anyone is me from time to time. But I just can’t chase the tiger by the tale in good faith.

People do chase these ballistic stocks in a moment of greed. They have a FOMO moment, (FEAR OF MISSING OUT) and no, I didn’t make that one up. It’s a real stock term.

But those vertical stock charts in some stocks, coupled with what I see as a faltering economy, may play out in a nasty sort of way, draining investor portfolios in the process.

I could be wrong. I never think I am 100% right, which is part of what I’ve learned in my 50 odd years of doing this stock thing.

But many times throughout history those darn rising vertical lines turn tail and vertically go the other way. And like investor icon Warren Buffett’s two investing rules say:

Rule 1: Don’t lose money.

Rule 2: Don’t forget rule 1.

Anything can happen, and some of it may not be so good.

Caveat emptor.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

Update One stock does not a market make Nov 22 2025

What will the market do now?

A Single Stock does not a Market make.

The last few weeks gave rise to a ferocious collapse in the artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Not to blow my own horn, but I had forecast this AI blowup in my August 22, 2025 article entitled “Another Bubble”.

It took about two months for that forecast to come true and the rout was fast and furious. The weakness in the AI sector took down the general market with it. Last week, one of the last big boy stocks in AI, NVIDIA, was due to post earnings November 19^th after market close and the market cheerleaders virtually rested the hopes of stopping the market fall on what NVDIA posted.

NVDIA then posted stellar earnings and almost the entire market screamed upwards the next day. I thought: “One company posts earnings and the entire markets is now fine?”.

Not buying it and stated as such. Mid-day, the market reversed and hammered down again.

So much for the power of one stock. For anyone to think one stock could cure all market ills was idiotic and it only took a few hours to prove that out in spades.

There is one entity that can move the market, however, and it the Federal Reserve that can do just that.

On November 21^st, a Federal Reserve board member commented as such that an interest rate cut could be in the cards. This was contrary to the previous hints that the Federal Reserve had made in the previous weeks that another cut may not be forthcoming.

Wham and voila.

The market screamed upwards on last Friday over 700 Dow points. It ended up down a bit from the high but still at an eye-popping plus 493 points.

The question then becomes: “Is the market rational and it is all clear sailing from here on in?”

Quite simply and in my opinion, no.

The markets reactions to both NVIDIA and the Federal Reserve’s comment is not rational, at least in this analyst’s opinion.

First off, the earnings of one company should not move an entire sector, let alone entire swaths of unrelated market sectors.

Secondly, it is a sad commentary on where the market stands as a whole when a single monetary policy comment sends a market bouncing like a super ball, whether up or down.

But we have seen this movie before.

Whereas the stock markets of the past have moved when the business climate was strong and/or improving, now market participants load up on stocks when credit is eased by an interest rate cut.

In English, it means let’s print up some more money, lend it out and watch the markets run. Never mind the economic truths which currently are that the consumer is struggling, inflation is still running rampant and will continue to do so (my opinion) and the U.S. dollar is slowly, and has been for decades, migrating itself into a Mexican Peso moment, which is becoming more and more worthless with every passing day.

I know many think this will all blow over, the U.S. will continue to lead the economic world, inflation will subside, business will remain strong and it will never rain again. The two political parties will eventually join hands and sing Kumbaya, the nations of the world will settle all their differences and wars will end, we will all go back to paying lower taxes, our healthcare problems will evaporate and a new wave of new businesses will spring up, ensuring that everyone has a good paying job.

And how many of us believe all that because the Federal Reserve might drop interest rates?

Bridge for sale.

PM me.

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