Newsletters - Past Issues

Talk about a world full of debt!

Marc’s Notes:

In our world, there are cycles for almost everything.  From the seasons to tidal, to mathematical cycles and life cycles to everything in between, there appears to be some repeatable and hence forecastable movements in almost all things.

The stock and bond markets also have cycles, but being a social science instead of an absolute one like math is, stock market movements are difficult to predict.

Many theories abound as to what is and isn’t a cycle in stock markets, and one of them pointed out by Sy Harding of Financial Sense.com is what he calls the “Super Bull Cycle” in stocks.

Mr. Harding brings to light an interesting observation suggesting we could be smack in the third of a Super Bull Market in stocks.

The first Super Bull occurred according to Harding in the 1920’s and ran 9 years until the market crashed in 1929.  The second Super Bull started around 1991 and lasted 9.3 years and ending in the dot.com crash of 2000.

Using those two cycles and looking at the current bull market in stocks, we find ourselves 5.8 years into our market run-up.  Looking at a projection of a 9 year duration, Harding suggests our market could continue to run for another 3.5 years or so, putting us smack in the middle of 2018 before the next “super crash” which follows Super Bulls.

So far, nothing has happened during this Super Bull of our markets 5 year run-up to dispute that prediction, and I personally see nothing that would alter that time frame if indeed we are in another Super Bull run-up.

Money Matters airs this Thursday December 4th, 2014 at NOON PST

Marc's Notes: