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How high can it go Update July 25, 2021

How high can it go?

From the March 2020 “CoVid” low of the Dow 18,000’s, the index has recently breached the 34,000 level.

3,000 more points on the Dow (DJIA) would make a double. Considering the massive damage done to world economies from the imposed shutdowns on both business and travel, the possibility that the Dow would reach such a milestone so soon is indeed perplexing, if not outright bordering on the unbelievable.

Gaining 3000 more points is not a given by any stretch, but the fact that the Dow is even close to a double in the face of such economic calamity begs some sort of explanation.

Analysts everywhere have opined on just why and how the incredible rally in stocks has occurred given the circumstances. We can comfortably conclude we will never know the exact reasons for the astonishing increase in stocks. The cross currents of markets and the aggregate whims of investor sentiment can never be scientifically explained, hence the reason economics is a more a study of sociology then of science.

The difference being a scientific conclusion can be replicated and its equations categorized, while markets movements are just the sum of investor beliefs and whims at any given time. As such, nothing concrete can ever be concluded where the human psyche is involved.

The next question is just how high can this market go.

No one can say how high it might go, how long it might take, or how low it might fall to, or if anything happens at all.

Whatever direction the markets do end up going will solely depend on the sum of all the beliefs and subsequent actions of the billions of players in it. As such, forecasting market direction is akin to knowing the exact path a leaf will take during a windstorm, which is an exercise in futility.

Keeping this fact in mind, investors can take a variety of actions in their portfolios:

Do nothing (hold their positions whatever happens)
Sell all their positions immediately
Sell a portion of their positions immediately
Sell all or a portion of their positions if and when prices hit a predetermined point
Buy more positions at a predetermined point
Buy opposing positions in an attempt to hedge (counter balance the account, keeping in mind it may not be possible to achieve a counter balance due to the nature of markets)

In my experience, many investors and advisors opt for #1. Moreover, I can comfortably say the majority of economic news outlets lean into the same. In other words, “hold for the long term”.

Past readers of Money Matters know I am not a wholehearted supporter of hold for the long term for a variety of reasons:

I do not know how much “long” I have left in my “term”, and truthfully, neither does anyone else.

Hold for the long term assumes markets always come back. Based on the advisor restriction from authorities that a licensed advisor can never guarantee markets movements of ANY kind, the statement speaks for itself. Never say never. Markets may always come back, until they don’t.

The pain and stress of a severe market crash can be excruciating. That translates to “unhealthy”, and during extreme crashes, that can be detrimental to one’s health and wellbeing, and possibly even one’s life.

Buy low and sell high is an old market adage. It isn’t “Ride ‘em wherever they go”. I will leave it to the imagination as to how that applies. Buying stocks when they are all beat up and riding them higher means profits. You can’t do that without dry powder.

Much like leaving a slot machine when you have lost enough money, my strategies center around #4, and that is simply knowing when to get out of dodge. Consider selling at least some of your holdings if things get ugly to lessen the pain, and make that decision before hand and stick to it.

In other words, leaving the casino when you have lost enough money, rather than to keep pulling the handle, all while watching your bank account dissolve into the nothingness of a market crash.

Opinions expressed here are those of Mr. Cuniberti and not those of any bank or investment advisory firm and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither Money Management Radio (“Money Matters”) receive, control, access or monitor client funds, accounts, or portfolios. For a list of the services offered by Mr. Cuniberti (530)559-1214. Calif. Insurance Lic #0L34249. Medicare Agent approved. Insurance services offered independently through Marc Cuniberti and not affiliated with any RIA firm or entity.

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Update on the Promise of Progress, Medicare and Fire Insurance June 29, 2021

Progress makes the world get better and better over time- Bureaucrats are destroying that unwittingly

Remember the “Promise of Progress”?

Man will improve manufacturing methods, streamline methodologies, develop faster computers, grow bigger apples and do it faster, and we would all have more leisure time to sit by the beach and contemplate the meaning of life.

Well, most of that happened, except for the last part. We did get faster computers, better growing and manufacturing techniques, and improved just about everything we did. Heck, we can even talk to each other on the phone from the top of Everest or research the entire contents of the now defunct Encyclopedia Britannica while sipping a Latte’ at the local coffee house.

Despite all this, we seem to have to work harder than before, work longer than before, and still can’t seem to make ends meet.

I seldom see any discussions about the thwarted promise of progress.

Perhaps we’ve all forgotten. But this analyst has not and asks the question: “What went wrong”?

Seemingly, whenever mankind figures out a way to make things cheaper, faster or better, somebody eventually wants to tax it, alter it or break up the company that does it.

Either that or those that fail to compete complain enough to somebody and then the subsidies come out that sustain the old methodologies, and therefore the higher costs and subsequent waste of our natural resources.

Examples are everywhere.

Amazon excelled at making things cheaper through widespread pricing awareness and now those threatened by it cry foul. Apple made phones wanted by many and now finds itself in front of the powers at be to answer for its “crimes”. WalMart, Costgo, Sams Club and a host of other big box stores and mega-chains suffer the slings and arrows of those who can’t compete and then find mandated (and usually arbitrary) costs attached to their products under the guise of fairness.

The list goes on and on.

Next will be that as the automated robot replaces more and more people (and their costs) I have no doubt a robot tax will soon follow and probably an ongoing one at that.

It seems like being too successful is not allowed.

Get too big or sell too cheaply and prepare to be roasted. Find a way to make things faster than the next guy, and you can expect somebody in the ivory halls of the state or the Feds to find a way to make your goods or services expensive again through some sort of “tax” or “retribution“ payment.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not against taxes, but I am a fan of sitting by the beach, and when I was growing up, I believed in the promise of progress.

Not so now.

Anytime something gets cheaper or better, the “better” parts stays around but the cheaper part doesn’t last long.

Rising prices now seems the norm, no matter what we do, brought about by either inflation, taxes, fees or surcharges.

Seems like competition is becoming a dirty word, that innovation eventually leads to handcuffs, or that novelty leads to complaint.

Have we forgotten that improvement in its many forms is a good thing?

True, some may be displaced as that very same improvement obsoletes methodologies and dries up revenue streams resulting in failing businesses. But this is the natural progression of innovation.

Capitalism calls it “creative destruction”. Most people just see the destructive part, and fail to see the creative part. The creative part is what brings about the promise of progress, the lower cost or better mousetrap, and forces those run over by innovation to become more efficient and find a better way to do whatever it is they do.

And there lies the real benefit to mankind. Better or faster, equates to “more efficient”. More efficient means less using less resources, whether it be power, materials or even saving time. All those add up to using less of our planets resources.

Less resource consumption (efficiency) means more product being available to more people (like food), less pollution, less greenhouse gases, and a more sustainable world.

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Fire season is upon us- Let me help you get the right policy at the right price

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Update on fire insurance June 16, 2021

Fire policies written daily

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Once again we come into the fire season and the calls about and for fire insurance policies abound. As an agent and owner of an insurance company, I find homeowners asking good questions and not so good questions, of which some are based on misconceptions about what is going on in the industry as it relates to homeowners policies.

Some time ago most residential homes were covered under one inclusive policy called an HO3 (HO= homeowners).

With the increase in wild fires, many insurance companies took huge losses and over time, some have elected to remove the fire portion of coverages from their policies. They also removed lighting, wind and internal explosion and other related coverages for a variety of reasons.

Insurance companies may still offer coverage for your home, but many have removed the fire and related risks mentioned above.

On rare occasions, an insurance company will still offer the all in one HO3 in fire areas but homeowners won’t know this unless they submit an application. The why or why nots as to why an insurance company may make these rare exceptions have some rhyme and reason to it, but usually that is known only to the insurers.

Nowadays it is common to have a fire policy and what is called a “wrap” policy or better known as a “Difference in Conditions” policy (DIC). The DIC is written by your regular insurer if they decide not to offer you a complete policy (HO3), and then you will likely need a California Fair policy for the fire portion of the coverage.

Cal Fair is not a state agency. It is a group of all the insurers that do business in the State and operate much like the “assigned risk” coverage for bad drivers. Cal Fair is all these insurers grouped together which then share in the losses and gains of the combined policies.

One could argue they may be financially bulletproof, which means unlike some insurance companies that may have gone under due to massive wildfire losses in recent years, Cal Fair may draw on the resources of the combined strength of the entity. They are also covered under the California Insurance Guarantee Association. (https://www.ciga.org/about_ciga.html).

Many of the phone calls I receive complain about Cal Fair and some say they want other options. When asked why, they usually respond, “because they’re too expensive”.

I always respond with the same answer, which is “usually no agent wants to write a Cal Fair policy because its compensation to agencies may not be commensurate with other rates. In addition, if you’re stuck in a hole and only one guy throws you a rope, you don’t complain. Your choices are if you don’t like Cal Fair, don’t get insurance. And when you’re regular insurer does come back to insure fire, you will probably wish you had Cal Fair”.

I say this because I find Cal Fair to be highly regulated, scrutinized and skinny on compensations as mentioned above. Not so with the big insurers in my opinion. So if you think Cal Fair is high, just wait. My opinion again of course.

The trick to navigating all this is getting a responsive agent who will take the time to discuss coverages, limits, deductibles and explain how it all affects your premiums. I can honestly say many customers I talk to tell me horror stories of agents not returning phone calls or not even answering their phones, being rude or short, telling customers they’re just too busy, or out of state cookie-cutter type agencies winging quotes with little discussion to the client.

The best way to make sure you get the right coverage at the right price is to work with an knowledgeable local agent, who will call you back, explain the policies, take the time to make sure all your questions are answered and get you the right limits and deductibles for your situation.

Opinions expressed here are those of Mr. Cuniberti and not those of any bank or investment advisory firm. Nothing stated is meant to insure a guarantee, or to be construed as investment advice. Neither Money Management Radio (“Money Matters”) receive, control, access or monitor client funds, accounts, or portfolios. For a list of the services offered by Mr. Cuniberti, call (530)559-1214. California Insurance License #0L34249 and Medicare Agent approved.

Meme Stocks are on the move again update June 11, 2021

The MEME stocks are on fire again. You remember these. My last article on the MEMES was the called “The Game that is Gamestop”.

The MEME stocks refer to a group of stocks thought to be driven by mostly novice day traders, spurred on by the common thread of social internet bloggings.

Specifically but not limited to Reddit and WallStreetBets, visitors to these and other social media sites communicate with others on the site, and like a stampeding herd of buffalo, once they get started, the “herd” start buying the stock flavor of the day.

A new phenomenon in the world of stock trading, the MEME group is not a concerted group at all. It’s just a whole bunch of people, unrelated by blood or otherwise, all moving without a single directive, but moving in masse nonetheless.

Their unstated but rumored purpose was to burn Wall Street traders who bet against certain stocks, hand them their proverbial monetary heads, and make lots of money in the process.

Called “short sellers”, the understanding of the mechanics of how Wall Street traders bet against a stock can be elusive to some. To keep things simple, just know that Wall Street firms often bet against a stock, hoping it will go down, and making money in the process.

Until a few months ago, there was no one group that might compete with Wall Street. In other words, although other traders could take the opposite bet and take positions on the long side instead (betting the stock goes UP instead of down), there was no one group large enough that could legally pressure a stock in one direction or the other. Although it is illegal to be a concerted group and purposely manipulate a stock up or down, by buying or selling massive amounts, a stock could moved by larger firms.

Enter the MEME traders. Not really an organized group, the sheer numbers of readers and bloggers who had some money and attended the same social media pages would start to buy a stock that a Wall Street group or groups had bet against.

With millions of bloggers all pointed in the same direction, they started initially buying GameStop and AMC Entertainment. There have been other MEME targets as well. Driving these stocks up many times over, the losses to some professionals were massive. As their losses mount, because of the logistics of how the bet is unwound, these firms were forced to BUY the very stock they had bet would go down. This buy back is called a ”short squeeze” and just drives the stock even higher.

The novelty was that the MEME group was widespread, had massive buying power due to their sheer numbers, and since they were only related through the web, the laws concerning illegal stock manipulation did not apply to them.

The MEMES were semi-quiet for a few weeks, as news media and Washington regulators dabbled in discussions about the strange new concern. That was until last week, when the MEME tsunami hit again and GameStop began another ascent. Not to be undone, AMC Entertainment got top honors this time around as it rocketed upwards, climbing upwards of 30% or more in a 24 hour period, and tripling in just a few days. A handful of other stocks were also rumored to be on the hit list of the MEME’s.

The Wall Street crowd, at least some of them, are starting to cry foul, while others claim the MEMES are doing nothing wrong as they are not really a group at all.

Washington loudmouths are also split on their take on the whole thing. The “for the people” claimants are cheering the MEMES on saying “stick it to Wall Street”, while the money from the traders and hedge funds are bending the ears of those politicians susceptible to such things. After all, money and politics do go together on occasion.

To this analyst, it all speaks to just another sign of excessive froth and speculation in the overall markets but I must admit it’s fun to watch. One reason for my amusement is there is so much money being made and lost on this circus, Wall Street pros who normally wouldn’t follow a Facebook type of platform, let alone trade on it, are analyzing the momentum of these massive moves and trading on the coat tails of the MEMES, adding that much more volatility to the action. When the Wall Street trading crowd dip their toes in the proverbial waters, you know there is a lot of money going around.

No one knows whether this thing will end up in court, become a new paradigm in the markets or just fade into oblivion. One thing is for sure however, for now the MEMES have everyone’s attention.

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EDD PAYMENTS CAUSING INFLATION UPDATE MAY 30 2021

EDD PAYMENTS

WHY WORK?

Last week I covered how the Employment Development Department (EDD) and their lucrative bonus payments to the unemployed has essentially made the national $15/hr minimum wage debate a moot point. The other contentious debate, called the “Living Wage” debate, will likely now be turned on its head as the higher wages forced up by EDD payment will result in exposing the vicious cycle of wage push inflation.

Not only the minimum wage debate been obsoleted by the EDD payments, those same payments are now causing even faster inflation in the economy than previously witnessed.

We can see this new “wage push” inflation as businesses, in line with my previous articles, are now, in many instances, offering over $15/hr. to entice potential workers to get off the couch and get back to work.

As inflation takes off, I have seen more and more commentary that the $15 rate, which was previously determined by many to approach the so-called and arbitrary “living wage”, is now insufficient as consumer prices skyrocket. To this analyst, it seemed such a short time ago anything under $15 was considered the minimum “living wage”. Now the $15 rate is considered well below the Living Wage and new figures are being tossed about on public platforms.

There is a reason why what once was determined to be at least close to a sufficient living wage is now quickly being labeled as grossly insufficient.

An economic reality is taking hold. Although higher wages are not the sole cause for higher consumer prices, those higher prices, higher wages coupled with soaring commodity prices, are crippling business balance sheets.

In a free market environment, businesses will always pass increased costs onto the consumer through higher prices and that is happening right now.

Inflation is starting to burn hot if you haven’t notice, which I am sure you have, and that searing inflation is showing up in the government statistics. This in itself some consider a miracle, as many analyst claim government inflation figures understate the real inflation rate. Whatever the truth, the latest inflation data out from Uncle Sam is an annual inflation rate of over 4%. According to some, the rate is even higher.

What happens next is why living wage proponents are calling for even higher wage rates as prices rise. They see the $15 rate, do some quick math, and realize $15 will no longer facilitate a living wage, so the calls go out for an even higher wage.

Many against the very concept of a living wage state it is arbitrary and doesn’t take in geographic considerations. An example would be the cost of living in New York compared to Modesto.

But others claim a more sinister thing is at work here. As wages rise, consumer prices follow. Therefore, with each increase in the wage rate, inflation rises even more, negating the higher wage rates.

Because of this, many argue the living wage debate is a nonsensical argument. Wage inflation will always push consumer costs faster and higher than wage rates.

Since it is an accepted fundamental in the study of economics that wages are a lagging indicator to consumer price inflation and also in its occurrence, the argument is put forth that the “sufficient wage” called for by many can never be reached by mandating wages ever higher. In fact, those mandates may be the cause. Inflation will always “outrun” wages and it is why some find themselves calling for an even higher wage.

Opponents to minimum wage mandates, which include opposing the very concept of a “living wage” (which is an arbitrary opinion depending on whose making the argument), point to the fact that an unmolested capitalistic `system` would correct wage/inflation conflicts. The argument is extended to address the current `system` as one that has been highly manipulated away from capitalism and more towards massive intervention which distorts the checks and balances of a capitalistic system.

No matter which side of the argument ones believes, a true solution to a problem solves the problem. Repeated attempts signify failure. The minimum wage has been raised 22 times to combat inflation and the living wage public commentary is seemingly upping its level in response to the recent inflation. This would lean into the argument that perhaps income inequality is at least partially caused by inflation which in turn owes its persistence to the very wage policies that attempt to correct it.

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Opinions expressed here are those of Mr. Cuniberti and may not reflect those of any media outlet. Mr. Cuniberti holds a degree in Economics from SDSU. For a list of the services offered by Mr. Cuniberti, call (530)559-1214. California Insurance License #0L34249. Medicare Agent approved. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com. Opinions expressed here are those of Mr. Cuniberti and not those of any bank or investment advisory firm. Nothing stated is meant to insure a guarantee, or to be construed as investment advice. Neither Money Management Radio (“Money Matters”) receive, control, access or monitor client funds, accounts, or portfolios. For a list of the services offered by Mr. Cuniberti, call (530)559-1214. California Insurance License #0L34249 and Medicare Agent approved. Insurance services offered independently through Marc Cuniberti and not affiliated with any RIA firm or entity. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com.

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