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Watch out for possible market correction here Update Jan 17 2021

 

JAPANESE MARKET CHART

TYPICAL PATTERN

IS OUR MARKET SETTING UP FOR THIS?
READ ON

 

There is an old saying in the investing world: “buy the rumor, sell the news”.

This, like all other quips in the world of stocks, is by no means a precursor to what will happen, only what might happen. This saying refers to the possibility that a stock will rise in price as a rumor hits the mill, only to fall when the rumor becomes fact.

For example. Imagine a smart phone manufacture who is rumored to have a blowout quarter in an upcoming earning season. The stock might increase as the rumor makes its way around Wall Street and public media. Then when the company posts earnings, it is indeed a blowout quarter. Surprising many an investor however, the stock sells off on the news.

This would be a classic example of “buy the rumor, sell the news”. It doesn’t always happen where good news is sold off, but it has happened more often than one would think.

We can take this occurrence and extrapolate it to the general market. The question now becomes can the current market rally, which has brought it above 30,000 on the Dow for the first time ever, continue to set even higher highs?

It is no surprise the markets new high flies in the face of current economic conditions. Indeed, the economy, because of the CoVid shutdowns, has seldom been in worse shape. Meanwhile, since the third week of March, the markets have recorded historic gains, to rise from Dow low of 18,213 to over 30,000.

The markets obviously were not looking at what was.

What was, was an economy shuttered by CoVid.

Instead, it could be argued, the markets meteoric rise was because investors were likely looking at what will be.  

What the market was looking forward to was a vaccine, humongous Fed spending, and an eventual reopening of the world’s economies. From week to week and from month to month, since the current environment was so bad, the hopes of a world reopening and what that would bring, was enough to push the markets ever higher. Its almost as if times were so bleak, the imagination of investors kept the registers ringing on Wall Street, and therefore, kept the stock market rising.

Fast forward to today, and we could be looking at an extremely overstretched market, which some argue is historically overbought on many levels.  At this time, it might be time to ask, what more good news could come out?

The vaccine it here and the Fed has spent trillions. Reopening is happening and the vaccine is making its way around the globe. It is only a matter of time before the world resumes at least some sense of normalcy.

That said, as of now, I can only see one more piece of good news in our future and the rumor of that is already out. One more round of stimulus from the Biden administration is in the works, and we already know it is.

What this means, at least to this analyst, is that the good news, possibly all of it, is already baked into the proverbial cake. The market could be said to be as high as the good news warrants, and has nothing to look forward to.

In my opinion, with a market that has risen close 60% off its lows in a mere 9 months, it is time for caution. If portfolios reflect market gains, then profits could be substantial, and protecting such profits should now be the order of the day.

After all, it’s better to miss a market top, then ride a market back down in a severe correction.  

A perfect “buy the rumor, sell the news” event may be setting up with the announcement of the final stimulus program from Washington.

That said, another saying comes to mind right now, and that saying goes something like this: “Nobody ever went broke taking a profit”.

Ignore at your own peril.

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti only and does not reflect the opinion of any news media or financial firm and is not meant as investment advice. Investing involves risk and you can lose money. No one can predict market movements at any time. Consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions. A full list of service from Mr. Cuniberti can be viewed at www.moneymanagementradio.com. California Insurance Lic# 0L34249. Medicare agent and market analyst, Mr. Cuniberti graduated in 1979 with honors with a B.A. in Economics from SDSU. He can be reached at (530) 559-1214

 

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Update follow up Marc nails the BITCOIN CORRECTION Jan 12 2021

 

A bubble or best thing going?

 

(I WROTE THIS UPDATE on SUNDAY   JAN 10- See date on the update)

 

Here is Monday's January 11th, 2021 news on CNN :

 

New York (CNN Business)"Bitcoin prices surged to a new all-time high of nearly $42,000 on Friday, only to plunge all the way back to about $31,000 Monday morning. That's a more than 20% drop -- which means bitcoin is now in a bear market, as bizarre as it sounds".

 

Did I call it or what?

 

 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/discover?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.c...

 

BITCOIN BUBBLE ?  Read this great article..... 

 

What Is a Bubble?

A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets. This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value, or a contraction, that is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."

 

Typically, a bubble is created by a surge in asset prices that is driven by exuberant market behavior. During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price, or within a price range, that greatly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value (the price does not align with the fundamentals of the asset).

 

Be careful kids......

Marc

January 10, 2021

 

(530)559 1214

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Bitcoin in a bubble Jan 10 2021

 

A bubble or best thing going?

 

(I WROTE THIS UPDATE on SUNDAY   JAN 10- See date on the update)

 

Here is Monday's January 11th, 2021 news on CNN :

 

New York (CNN Business)"Bitcoin prices surged to a new all-time high of nearly $42,000 on Friday, only to plunge all the way back to about $31,000 Monday morning. That's a more than 20% drop -- which means bitcoin is now in a bear market, as bizarre as it sounds".

 

Did I call it or what?

 

 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/discover?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.c...

 

BITCOIN BUBBLE ?  Read this great article..... 

 

What Is a Bubble?

A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets. This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value, or a contraction, that is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."

 

Typically, a bubble is created by a surge in asset prices that is driven by exuberant market behavior. During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price, or within a price range, that greatly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value (the price does not align with the fundamentals of the asset).

 

Be careful kids......

Marc

January 10, 2021

 

(530)559 1214

Investments

Commentary

Insurance     Fire specialists

Medicare 

 

 


 

Another shutdown? Update Jan 9 2021

 

We are closing the shop again!

 

Never in the decades of following economics and the markets have I witnessed such man-made damage foisted onto the world’s economies such as is occurring now. With a second complete economic shutdown now initiated in my home state of California due to spiking CoVid cases, the expected fall out on American businesses is no doubt going to be even more catastrophic.

I say man-made damage because although the CoVid virus itself is an organic culprit, the decision to shut down is one of man.

My initial forecast in March of this year was that somewhere around 25% of small businesses would be obliterated by the initial shutdowns.

This second round will certainly increase that estimate by an unknown degree. From an economic standpoint, the shutdown is unprecedented. We have never had an instance where almost all business everywhere was either severely restricted or outright shuttered completely.

The pushback from business owners is more pronounced this time around. Those business owners that have somehow survived the first prolonged shutdown now stand in disbelief as they are once again asked to close their doors and turn away much needed revenue from would-be paying customers.

The debate on whether shutdowns were the appropriate response to CoVid is increasing as more and more businesses go under. The initial shutdown was never imagined to last as long as it did, and just when the country began to reopen, giving some hope to the surviving businesses, the winter season brings once again more restrictions. Adding insult to injury, it is the Christmas season that brings many businesses the majority of their annual revenue.At this point, the debate of whether the cure is worse than the disease is being voiced by more than a few. Some argue CoVid would bring about more personal devastation in the form of death and disease should this second shutdown not be initiated. Others insist that to shut down again would cause massive personal and economic damage which will far outweigh the misery the virus would ever cause on its own.The argument is not exclusively centered around the cold reality of death versus dollars however. In an article posted in the Washington Post on Sept. 24, 2020 entitled “The pandemic pushes hundreds of millions of people toward starvation and poverty”, it states: “David Beasley, the executive director of the U.N.’s World Food Program, warned during a Sept. 18 briefing that a “wave of hunger and famine still threatens to sweep across the globe.  He said his organization needed close to $5 billion to prevent 30 million people from dying of starvation”.Adding to the argument is the fact that domestic violence (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/world/coronavirus-domestic-violence.html9), suicide (https://www.healio.com/psychiatry/journals/psycann/2020-12-50-12/%7B60567d09-854d-4092-b3fe-11d040f2c92c%7D/the-increase-in-suicide-during-the-covid-19-pandemic) and mental issues (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/levels-of-anxiety-addiction-suicidal-thoughts-are-soaring-in-the-pandemic#1) presumed to be brought about by isolation are on the rise.With the belief by some that the new restrictions are necessary to contain the worst outbreak since CoVid’s inception, still others are questioning whether shutting down the economy has accomplished its goal of slowing the spread at all. If not, is another shutdown just one bad decision followed by yet another?Many claim the reason for the failure is not everyone followed mask and distancing mandates. Still others say mandates will never be followed by everyone, that the first shutdown was the best that could be expected and that a second shutdown is a futile attempt at a failed methodology. This will only cause thousands of more businesses to go under and bring about another round of unnecessary human suffering.If there is any good news in all of this, it is that the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and is on its way to distributions centers, with some people already getting vaccinated. It will be months however before the majority of Americans will have access to it while some say they will refuse to take it no matter what.No matter what side of the argument one believes, the fact is that the economic damage and the amount of human suffering is beyond any comparisons.That said, there may be some good news on the horizon for those thinking of starting a business. Despite the notion that the idea of hatching a new endeavor at this time seems farfetched in the face of such a stark business environment, I’ll touch on this unexpected suggestion next week.

 

Opinions expressed here are those of Mr. Cuniberti and not those of any bank or investment advisory firm. Nothing stated is meant to insure a guarantee, or to be construed as investment advice. Neither Money Management Radio (“Money Matters”) receive, control, access or monitor client funds, accounts, or portfolios. For a list of the services offered by Mr. Cuniberti, call (530)559-1214. California Insurance License #0L34249 and Medicare Agent approved.  Insurance services offered independently through Marc Cuniberti and not affiliated with any RIA firm or entity. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com.

 

 

 

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Update December 5 2020

 

Hello Money Matters fans,

 

The resilience of Americans continues to astound me.

With the wicked arrival of CoVid-19, the market plunged from a February all-time high (Dow Jones Industrial Average- DOW) to a 38% correction in a mere three weeks.

From there, it seemed as if the CoVid event turned from imminent threat into a golden opportunity for the nimble investor. While main street reeled in a seemingly unending economic death spiral, Wall Street looked upon the threat through rose colored glasses. Investors in the right place saw their carefully selected stocks rocket upwards. Although the initial rally encompassed only a few sectors, as the months ticked by, more and more sectors caught the rally bug. Fast forward to today and it’s hard to find a stock that hasn’t blasted upwards in stunning fashion.

Indeed, the optimism, at least for some investors, is palatable.

Main Street occupants weren’t so giddy. With ongoing shutdowns and various occupancy restrictions, and only one round of stimulus, many small business owners reeled under bleeding balance sheets brought on by butt-less seats and empty store aisles.

And although the shutdowns have gone on much longer than anyone anticipated, consumers, at least some of them, exhibit an attitude than can be described in no other terms than die-hard.

Initially held at home from the lockdowns, about halfway through the calamity, necessity become the mother of invention.

Some restaurants initiated drive-through services where they once had none. Municipalities, not wanting to see their business base decimated, eased restrictions and allowed on-street dining and even alcohol to go, which had previously been a strict no-no.

Stores adapted social distancing and the sticker people ramped up on the production of the necessary labels and dots to fill the need. Plastic manufacturers worked overtime to provide the millions of shields and screens, while hand sanitizer initially in short supply, was bottled up in truck loads by the familiar disinfectant companies, joined by inventive liquor producers who cranked out what could only be called as a “Grade F” type of vodka, to fill the need while resurrecting some sort of an income stream.

Car dealers started home delivery, repair shops initiated no-touch, drive through auto services, and meal deliveries kept ride sharing companies at least somewhat busy.

Television execs initiated strict testing guidelines so at least some filming could be restarted and evening hit shows filled their audiences with zoom monitors. Even some sports arenas sat cardboard people in the end zones and filled at least some seats with faux human likenesses.

Heck, even the Macy Thanksgiving Parade took place. It was void of the crowds and human balloon anchors, but they replaced those by enhancing the TV coverage and using robotic float pullers.

A massive undertaking by the pharmaceutical giants of the world all turned their resources in concert towards one goal: Find a vaccine that works and find it as quick as possible.

Indeed, similar to the ramp up of production at the beginning of WW2, in a mere 8 months, the gears of much of our economy had been slammed in reverse by CoVid-19, only to move forward in stunning fashion as America was forced to shift gears and shift gears it did. Through calamity after calamity, from devastating wildfires, to a wave of deadly hurricanes, and the most contentious election in recent memory, America has risen up and met the challenge. Yes, there will be casualties. There always is in the midst of cataclysmic catastrophes.

But we will survive.

And like the proverb “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”, America has learned much, and will immerge on the other end of CoVid-19, victorious.

And be that much better for it.

 

 

Medicare time is upon me and as a licensed insurance agent I can write the policies myself. Although Medicare is part of my continuing education for my life and health certifications from the Department of Insurance, the brief material on Medicare was not enough for me to make an educated selection. I therefore joined up with an insurer who offers the supplements and I am now knee deep in materials.

Many people reach the qualifying age of 65 since I am approaching that age I ask folks what Medicare plans they have selected.

To my surprise, many don’t know what exact Medicare options they have selected. That being said, it makes me wonder why so many people don’t understand what they have.

Either they are not taking adequate time to learn Medicare or whoever they are asking for help from are not explaining the options very well. Whatever the case may be, understanding the basics and what is available is time well spent.

Medicare has gone through many changes. There are the government basic plans offered direct through the government and then the supplemental plans called Medi-Gap and Medi-Advantage.  These fill in the holes not offered by Plans A and B. Different plans and options can address individual situations.

To begin with., all plans are designated by alphabetical letters.

Medicare part A and part B are the government offered coverages and everyone starts with these.

Generally speaking, A is for hospitalization needs and generally covers inpatient hospital stays, skilled nursing care, hospice care, and limited home health-care services.  B is for Doctor needs and helps pay for services from doctors and other health care providers, outpatient care, home health care, durable medical equipment, and some preventive services.  A is free for the most part but can have some payments required such as deductibles. B is not free but dependent on one’s income and like A, can also have required out of pocket expenses.

Then rest of the parts of Medicare you must procure through private insurers.

These insurers, of which there are many, must adhere to certain guidelines set by the government.

These insurers sell plans called “supplemental” plans commonly referred to as Medi-Gap plans. These gap plans cover things that Plans A and B do not. There is also is the hybrid Medicare part C, called Medi-Advantage, which stands alone on how it works.

In simple terms, once you get plans A and B, you either get a supplement plan(s), or Medi-Advantage part C, but not both.

Which plans and options one can choose is also dependent on where one lives.

If it sounds confusing, that’s what I thought. And truth be told, it’s probably why the many folks I talked to didn’t know exactly what it is they bought.

And although the government stipulated plan benefits must be identical no matter what insurer you buy it from, they authorities did not stipulate they all have to offer them to you at the same price. In other words, you could pay more for the exact same plan depending on the insurer you buy it from.

Depending upon how many ills one might have, how often you go to a doctor, how many prescriptions you may have, if you want to keep your current medical providers or not and balancing your monthly premium desires with your out of pocket expenses expectations, this will all lead you in the direction of selecting the best plan for your situation. To select the best and most affordable plan for your situation it will likely require some hours spent in front of the computerAlthough special circumstances will mean automatic enrollment and age exceptions for some, in general, there is an enrollment period that starts 3 months prior to your 65th birthday and ends 3 months after the month of that birthday.

Missing this enrollment period can lead to problems for some so don’t overlook it. You likely won’t have to be reminded as your mailbox will likely start to fill with offer after offer from Medicare providers as you approach your 65th birthday. As always watch for scams and double check everything before you buy as changing plans later can have restrictions. Newbies can start by visiting www.medicare.gov. . Finding a Medicare specialist insurance agent will also help in your final selections. I am a Medicare agent.  Call, lets sort through the confusion. 

 

 

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